押し目買いとは?仕組み・トレード方法を図解で詳しく解説

1. 押し安値・戻り高値とはダウ理論に基づくトレンド分析手法

押し安値とは、チャートを見たときに、現在高値になっているところのスタート地点(起点)になっている安値のことだ。高値のきっかけを作ったそもそもの出発地点と言うこともできる。

また、戻り高値とは、チャートを見たときに、現在安値になっているところのスタート地点(起点)になっている高値のことだ。安値のきっかけをつくった、そもそもの出発地点ということもできる。

今回の分析手法は、まさにこの押し安値と戻り高値をフル活用したテクニックであり、FXの真髄とも言える『ダウ理論』に非常に忠実なテクニックなので、ぜひともマスターして頂きたい。

ダウ理論とは、端的に言ってしまえば、上昇トレンド(買い目線)は安値を切り下げない限りは、ずっと続いていくという考え方だ。逆に、下降トレンド(売り目線)は高値を突破しない限りは、これもずっと続いていくという考えだ。

『ずっと』と言ったが、もちろん、FXにおいてトレンドはずっとは続かない。しかし、あえて『ずっと』という表現を使った。これは、トレード中に、ちょっとしたレートの動きで動揺しないためである。トレンドは継続するという意識が重要なのだ。

初心者の中には、少しの値動きで動揺して、押し安値を切り下げていない、つまり上昇トレンドが継続しているにも関わらず、焦って損切りをしたり、『もう下降トレンドに入った』と勝手に解釈をして、大敗する傾向があるのだ。

ダウ理論は、広く世界のFXトレーダーに知れ渡っている考え方だ。多くのトレーダーが取り入れている考え方ということは、大局的にはそのダウ理論に従った値動きになる確率の方が、圧倒的に高いということである。

押し安値・戻り高値の考え方は、ダウ理論の核心をついた、非常に有効なトレード手法である。ただ、それを有効に活用できるかどうかは、前述したように、その手法を信じ続ける信念にかかっている。

押し安値が突破されない限りは、ひたすら買い目線で、買いエントリーだけを続けること、そして、戻り高値が突破されない限りは、ひたすら売り目線でエントリーを続けること。これがものすごく重要ポイントであり、肝となる。

少々のレートの動きに動揺せず、押し安値・戻り高値を攻略できれば、利益確定:損切り=1:1という比率でも、勝率60%強を着実にキープできる。いくら良い手法を使っても、それを継続できるかどうかがポイントなのだ。このことをまず念頭に置いて、ぜひ、押し安値・戻り高値を自らの武器として頂きたい。

2. 押し安値・戻り高値を把握するメリット・重要性

押し安値、戻り高値を把握することは、FXトレードにおいて基本となる。ましてや、初級~中級レベルであれば、今、大局的には上昇トレンドなのか下降トレンドなのかを把握しておくことは、FXの世界で生き残っていくためには必須事項となる。

まず、押し安値を把握するメリットは、現在が上昇トレンドなのか、もしくはその上昇トレンドはもう終了してしまったのかが、一目で分かる点だ。これによって、エントリーの目線を、買いなのか、買いは終了して売り目線に切り替えるべきなのかを判断できる。

また、戻り安値を把握するメリットはその逆で、現在が下降トレンドなのか、もしくはその下降トレンドはもう終了してしまったのかが、一目で分かる点だ。これによって、エントリーの目線を、売りなのか、売りが終了して買い目線に切り替えるべきなのかを判断できる。

 目線を買い・売りのどちらに置くか、それを固定することはトレードにおいて非常に大きな意味を持つ。FXにトレードに置いて負ける人の大半は、『買いか売りかの目線がぶれる(動く)ことで、結局相場に振り回されて、下手したら全取引で負ける』という現実だ。大口投資家の思うツボにはまってしまうのだ。

この仕組みを軽く説明しておく。押し安値が切り下げていない上昇トレンドが続いているにも関わらず、レートが10pipsほど逆行(下がった)としよう。初心者はここで慌てて損切りし、売りに切り替える。しかし、売りエントリーをした途端、今度は再びレートが上昇し始める。ナンピンを繰り返しながら耐えていたが、さらに上昇を続け、大きな損切りを食らい、退場。

この流れが非常に多いのだ。10pipsほどの一時的な逆行というのは、買い勢力の利益確定(=売り決済)であったり、大口投資家が揺さぶり(ダマシ)をかけているだけであり、これはFXの世界においては日常茶飯事の出来事である。

いわゆる『往復ビンタ』である。ここに踊らされ、大口投資家のカモにされ、すべてを失ってしまうFXトレーダーがほとんどなのだ。

しかし、押し安値、戻り高値の考え方をマスターし、これを貫き通せば、この往復ビンタに遭うリスクはなくなる。少々値を戻してこようが、押し安値を突破されず上昇トレンド継続中なら、買いで入り続けるのだ。たとえ2連敗、3連敗しようが、信念さえ貫き通せれば、トータルでは勝てる。

押し安値、戻り高値には、このように、往復ビンタを食らわず、大口投資家のカモにされず、目線を徹底的に固定できる、という大きなメリットがあるのだ。

また、押し安値、戻り高値は、大半のFXトレーダーに常に意識されているレートである。多くの人に意識されているということは、その理論が機能する確率が高いということを意味している。

押し安値を切り下げるまでは買い目線で入ろうとするトレーダーが多いわけであり、無理にそこに逆らわず、上昇トレンドに相乗りさせてもらうのだ。戻り高値にしてもしかりである。

多くのトレーダーの、大きな流れに乗ってくのだから、必然的に勝てる確率は高くなる。押し安値・戻り高値という考え方が、トータルで勝つためにはいかに重要な手法であるかを分かって頂けたはずだ。

3. 押し安値・戻り高値の見つけ方とエントリー方法

3-1. 押し安値の見つけ方・エントリー方法

押し安値を見つけるのは、個人差が出やすいし、最初は慣れないとは思うが、経験を積むと簡単にできるようになる。押し安値の見つけ方とともに、ダウ理論に基づいた見方をマスターしてほしい。できる限りシンプルな見つけ方で説明する。

まず、1時間足チャートを見てほしい。1時間足というのは、世界中のトレーダーが最も使っている時間足と言われているからだ。

チャートを見て、押し安値がどこにあるかはいきなりは判別できない。まず、最高値にチェックを入れてみる。チャートはジグザグになっており、その時点での最高値をいくつかチェックできるはずだ。これが、押し安値を見つける下準備である。

次に、先ほどチェックを入れた最高値の、起点になっている安値に丸印を入れる。この丸印を入れた安値が、押し安値ということになる。具体的に、以下の図を見てもらうと分かって頂けるはずだ。

最高値Aを作った出発地点となった安値こそが『押し安値』である。ただし、押し安値は複数登場してくるので、この最高値Aの起点である押し安値は『押し安値①』としておく。

同様に、最も高値Bの起点となった安値は『押し安値②』、高値Cの起点となった安値は『押し安値③』だ。

間違えないで頂きたいのが、高値そうに見えても『最高値』を更新していなければ、それは押し安値の対象外となる。図で言うところの『最高値を更新していない、ただの山』と表記している個所の、起点となっている安値は押し安値にはならない、ということだ。ここは、分かりやすく『ただの安値』としておいた。

さて、ここで大きな問題にぶち当たる。『どの押し安値をエントリー基準として採用すればよいか』ということだ。たくさんの押し安値があるので、特に初心者には迷いが生じやすい。

答えは、最も最近の押し安値だ。そこだけを見ておけばよい。そこを切り下げてくるのか、切り下げずに再上昇していくか、そこがポイントなのだ。

先ほどの図で説明しよう。例えば、今現在の相場が、『ただの安値』付近で進行中だとする。それであれば、すぐ手前の押し安値である『押し安値②』を見ておけばよい。押し安値②を下に突破されない限りは、『ただの安値』までレートが下がってきていても、億することなく、『上昇トレンド継続』と判断するのだ。

この考え方こそが、ダウ理論の真骨頂なのである。直近の押し安値を切り下げず、高値を更新している限りは上昇トレンドは継続するという考え方だ。

図で言う所の、『ただの安値』や『ただの山』近辺でレートがうろうろしていたとしても、上昇トレンドは継続している、ということになる。

以上が押し安値の見つけ方なのだが、次は、具体的なエントリー方法について見ていく。

様々なエントリー方法はあるが、押し安値を切り下げていないことさえ確認したら、その時点で上昇トレンド継続中と判断できるので、買いエントリーすることだけを考える。

具体的には、シンプルなエントリー方法としては、値幅で割り切ってしまうという手法がある。これは、レートの動きに癖の少ないドル円、ユーロ円、ユーロドルで特に有効だ。

まず、高値を見つける。そして、そこから直近の押し安値に向かって、レートが20pips戻ったら、その地点から買いエントリーを仕掛ける。利益確定18pips、損切りも18pipsで、指値と逆指値も入れてしまう。これだけだ。これでおおよそ60%強の勝率を確保することができる。

高値から20pips下がってきている状態というのは、何が起こっているかというと、買い勢力の利益確定(=売り決済)が行われているのだ。上昇トレンド継続中に、20pips程度下がれば、今度は再び上昇に戻る確率が高いので、この手法を紹介した。

また、利益確定と損切りをそれぞれ18pipsにしているのは、上昇トレンド中であれば、また高値を更新していく可能性が高いが、高値付近でもみ合いになって、高値を更新できない可能性もある。しかし、少なくとも、高値更新へ挑戦する動きは出るので、ここを利用するのだ。

高値から20pips下がった所から買いエントリーすれば、その高値付近にまでは再びレートが戻り易い習性を活かし、高値更新にまで至らずとも勝てるように、高値の少し手前で勝ち逃げする。利益確定を18pipsと設定している所がミソだ。

損切りも同じく18pipsの地点に設定しておく。これで、利確:損切り=1:1となる。この条件で60%越えの勝率が期待できるので、継続すればするほどトータルでは勝てるのだ。

もしくは、再高値の所付近までレートが上昇してきて10pips程度下落した地点から、利益確定30pips、損切り30pipsで買いエントリーをする。これは、上昇トレンド継続中であるために、更なる高値を更新する可能性が高い、という特性を生かした、いわゆる高値ブレイク狙いのエントリーとなる。慣れてくれば、このエントリー方法でもよい。

ここまでは、上昇トレンド継続という視点でのエントリーの仕方である。逆に、『押し安値』を下回ってきた場合には、上昇トレンド終了と見なして、『下降トレンド』として、売りエントリーを狙う方法もある。

その場合には、押し安値を切り下げてきても、下降トレンドスタートとはすぐには判断せず、レートがもう1度押し上げてきて、しかし再び下降し、押し安値ラインを再び割り込んできた所で、売りエントリーを仕掛けると勝率が高くなる。

トレンドの転換というものは、そう簡単に起こることではなく、基本的にはトレンドは継続している期間のほうが圧倒的に長い。なので、押し安値を切り下げたからと言ってもすぐにはエントリーせず、そのラインを2回割った時点で売りエントリーをする方が有利なのだ。

その場合も、慣れないうちは『利益確定20pips、損切り20pips』と割り切って設定しておくとシンプルでやりやすいはずだ。

ただ、上昇トレンドからのトレンド転換を見極めて売りエントリーで入るのは初心者には少々難易度が高いので、まずは基本に忠実に、上昇トレンドに乗って行く買いエントリーをおススメする。

3-2. 戻り高値の見つけ方・エントリー方法

戻り高値の見つけ方は、押し安値の見つけ方と真逆になる。

チャートを見て、押し安値がどこにあるかはいきなりは判別できない。まず、最安値にチェックを入れてみる。チャートはジグザグになっており、目立つ最安値をいくつかチェックできるはずだ。これが、戻り高値を見つける下準備である。

次に、先ほどチェックを入れた安値の、起点になっている高値に丸印を入れる。この丸印を入れた高値が、戻り高値ということになる。以下の図に示した。

最安値Aを作った出発地点となった高値こそが『戻り高値』である。ただし、押し安値同様、戻り高値も複数登場してくるので、この最安値Aの起点である戻り高値は『戻り高値①』としておく。

同様に、最安値Bの起点となった高値は『戻り高値②』、最安値Cの起点となった高値は『戻り高値③』だ。

直近の最安値を更新した直前の高値こそが『戻り高値』であるので、直近の安値を更新できていない部分は、分かりやすく『ただのへこみ』とし、そこを出発地点とした高値は『ただの山』と表記した。

戻り高値の場合も、押し安値と同様に、ダウ理論の考え方を踏まえたトレードをする。レートが戻り高値を上回らない限りは、下落トレンドが継続しているものとして判断し、売りでエントリーすることだけを考える。逆に、戻り高値を上回ってきた場合には、下落トレンドが終了し、上昇トレンドへ転換したものとして買い目線に切り替える必要がある。

戻り高値のエントリー方法も、値幅を決めてしまってのエントリーがやりやすい。戻り高値の近くまでレートが戻ってきて、できるだけ引きつけて売りエントリーすると成功率は高いのだが、買いのときと違って売りの場合は、あまり戻さずに一気に30~40pips程度下落してしまうケースも多いので、押し安値のときとは少し違ったエントリー方法を書いておく。

まず、戻り高値から10pips下がった地点で、利益確定、損切りともに20pipsの地点に設定しての売りエントリーをする。これで順行して下がれば、利益確定とともに、あらたに20pipsに設定して売りエントリーで勝負する。もし最初の段階で20pips逆行したとすれば、それはもはや戻り高値を上回る水準に達しており、下落トレンドという形は崩壊しているので、エントリーをいったん見送るか、もしエントリーしたとしても、買いエントリーでエントリーする。

下落トレンドの場合は、一気に下がっていくケースが多いので、1度20pipsとれたとしても、そこで間髪入れずにさらに20pips、売りエントリーでたたみかける、という所がポイントだ。

『ここまで下がったのだから、そろそろ戻すだろう』は一切考えない。FXでの感覚的な『そろそろ』は『まだ』であることを覚えておくとよい。

押し安値のときと同様に、逆の考え方でのエントリー方法もある。戻り高値を上回ってきたときに、下落トレンド終了、つまり、トレンド転換であると見なして、買いエントリーで入るという方法だ。しかし、これは初心者のうちは、ダマシに遭うケースも多いので、まずは順張り、つまり、トレンドの流れに沿ったトレード習得を最優先にすべきだ。

戻り高値を越えてこないかぎりは、下落トレンド継続と見て、ひたすら売りエントリーだけで仕掛ける。このシンプルな手法が初心者にとっては最も有効である。

4 押し安値・戻り高値によるエントリー注意点

①   トレンドは継続する、という信念をもつ。

冒頭でも書いたが、押し安値・戻り高値は、ダウ理論の考え方に基づいた、トレンドをとらえたトレード手法である。その最中には、一時的な戻しが入ることは常である。その一時的な少しの値動きに、絶対に惑わされてはならない。

の一時的な少しの値動きに、絶対に惑わされてはならない。

これを常に意識しておかなければ、せっかくの押し安値・戻り高値手法もうまく機能しないどころか、大敗することになる。

中には、大きめの戻しが入って、損切りにあってしまい、負けることもある。こういう不遇の時も一喜一憂せず、次のエントリーチャンスを待つ、ということが何より重要なのだ。

②  押し安値・戻り高値を越えたかどうかは、ロウソク足の『実体』で判断する。

押し安値を一瞬下回ったり、戻り高値を一瞬上回ったりすることはよくあることだ。いわゆる、大口投資家によるダマシ、などがこれに該当する。ほんの一瞬だけ押し安値を意図的に下回るようレートを下げ、初心者が『押し安値を下回ったから売りエントリーだ』と思って売りに飛び乗った瞬間に、再び上昇方向へ戻す、というものだ。

これを防ぐには、1時間足チャートのロウソク足の『実体』で判断することが必要である。ヒゲでは、まだ押し安値もしくは戻り高値を完全に突破したことにはならない。

ロウソク足が確定するまで、じっくりと『待つ』こともトレードの1つなのである。

③   損切りは必ず入れる。

押し安値・戻り売りがいくら有能な手法だからと言って、損切りを入れないのはあまりに無謀すぎる。トレンドは継続はするものの、どこかでは終了するので、必ず損切りを入れておく。押し安値もしくは戻り高値でエントリーするときには、多少の揺さぶり(ダマシ)を想定しておいたとしても、押し安値レートから10~15pipsラインの所では損切りを入れておく必要がある。

5. 実際のチャートによる押し安値・戻り高値の分析

実際のチャートを見ながら、押し安値・戻り高値の位置と、エントリーの解説をしていく。まずは押し安値のチャートから見ていく。

これは1時間足のチャートだ。赤丸が押し安値、水色の丸が最高値を表している。

チャートを見ると、レートは押し安値を下回ることなく、さらには、押し安値自体が切り上がっていっているのが分かるはずだ。

典型的な上昇トレンドのパターンである。

これを前述した押し安値のエントリー方法で買いエントリーをする。高値の水色個所から20pips下がった所から、利益確定18pips、損切り18pipsで設定してエントリーした場合、チャートに示したように、買いエントリー機会は3回あって、すべて成功している。

これは、平たく言ってしまえば、上昇トレンドが確定している状況で、20pips程度戻してきた地点ということは、これからの上への伸びしろが大きいことを意味し、買いエントリーで入るとかなりの高勝率で勝てる、ということだ。

もちろん毎回そうではないが、極端に言ってしまえば、40pips上昇、20pipsは利益確定(売り決済)で戻し→また40pips上昇、20pipsは利益確定で戻し…という繰り返しということだ。

この40pipsというところが30になったり25になったり、戻しの20pipsというところが15になったり35になったりはする。

しかし、押し安値さえ下回ってなければ、買いトレンドは継続しているのだ。このことを肝に命じておいてほしい。

上昇トレンド中に少し下げてきた所こそ、買いエントリーの狙い目というわけだ。

次に、戻り高値のチャートも見ていく。

赤丸が戻り高値だ。戻り高値からの売りエントリーの場合は、そこを上回らない限り、躊躇せずに波状攻撃を仕掛けていく形になる。前述したように、下落の場合は、一気に落ちていくパターンが多いからだ。

これは、落ちる・下がるということに対しての恐怖心といった人間心理も影響していると言われている。

戻り高値から10pips程度下がった所(売りエントリー①・③・⑤・⑦)から、さらに下がると見て20pipsの利益確定と損切り設定にて売りエントリーを入れる。

そして、20pipsとれたら、さらにそこから20pipsの売りエントリーを浴びせる。(売りエントリー②・④・⑥)

かなり大きく下げてきていて、『もうこれ以上は落ちないだろう』と感じても、そこからまだ落ちる確率の方が高い。下落トレンド継続中というダウ理論が崩れていない限り、ひたすら売りエントリーで勝負すべきなのだ。

そして、どこかのタイミングではダウ理論が崩れ、下落トレンドは終了する。

図で言う所の売りエントリー⑦は、買い戻しにあって、戻り高値を上回り、下落トレンドが終了して最終的には損切りになるが、ここを恐れていてはいけない。

最後には必ず1敗か2敗するのだ。

そこを織り込み済みで、負けトレードもろとも、売り続けるのだ。

最後の1、2トレードは確実に負けるが、そこまでに余りある勝利を得ているので、トータルでは絶対にプラスになる。

買いエントリーに比べると、売りエントリーは瞬発力がモノを言ってくる。

一瞬のうちに10pipsや20pips下がることもザラだ。

躊躇せず、戻しを怖がらず、戻り高値を上回ってさえいなければ、ひたすら売りエントリーを浴びせ続けることが、トータルで勝つコツである。

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