- FX投資におけるウォルフ波動はどうやって見つけるの？
- ウォルフ波動のメリットやデメリットは？
- ウォルフ波動の線の引き方は？
ウォルフ波動理論は、FX投資におけるテクニカル分析の際に活用するための一つの理論だ。
具体的には上昇もしくは下降トレンド時に、チャートに現れるウォルフ波動の動きを確認した上で、逆張りを行う手法のことをいう。
ウォルフ波動の基本的な動き自体は、FX初心者でも理解しやすく、専業トレーダーもよく使っているテクニカル分析理論の一つに数えられる。
本記事ではFX投資における、ウォルフ波動理論に関しての具体的なメリットや見つけ方・線の引き方など、
FX初心者でも分かりやすく解説。
最後まで読んで頂くことで、ウォルフ波動理論に関して正しく理解し、FX投資での勝率を上げる事ができるだろう。
- ウォルフ波動理論とはトレンド時に現れる逆張りの手法である
- ウォルフ波動はエントリーと利確ポイントが明確である
- ウォルフ波動はあくまでも一つの要因として考えること
1.ウォルフ波動理論とはトレンド時に現れる逆張りの手法
ウォルフ波動理論は別名「ウォルフウェーブ（wolfe waves）」とも呼ばれており、簡単にいったらトレンド時に現れる逆張り手法の一つだ。
理論の考案者は、投資家として有名なビル・ウォルフ(Bill Wolfe）氏と、その息子のブライアン・ウォルフ（Brian Wolfe）氏の2人。
理論の名前の由来については、2人のファミリーネームから来ていると言っても過言ではないだろう。
また、2人が考案したウォルフ理論は、物理学者であるニュートンの運動第3の法則となる
「作用・反作用の法則」に基づいて作られた理論となっている。
作用・反作用の法則とは、簡単に言ったら押す力に対して必ず反発する力が働くことを指す。
FX市場に例えると、一度下がった（もしくは上がった）相場は、必ずその後逆の値動きをするという理論になる。
そのため、チャートでもしウォルフ波動の傾向が確認できたのであれば、逆張りを行うことで大きく利益を得られる訳だ。
2.ウォルフ波動理論の主な3つのメリット
ウォルフ波動理論の一番のメリットは、エントリーと利確ポイントが明確に分かるということだ。
FX取引では”トレンドライン”を引くことで、相場が上昇トレンドか下降トレンドかを把握する事ができるが、
その中にウォルフ波動を見つける事ができるかが鍵となる。
トレンドは一度発生すると一定時間続くため、ウォルフ波動を見つけることができたら、高確率で利益を出すことができるだろう。
ただし、ウォルフ波動は一つの根拠に過ぎないため、他の根拠と合わせて考えるのが得策だ。
2-1.エントリーと利確ポイントが明確である
ウォルフ波動はトレンド相場に合わせてラインを引くことで、最初にチャートの中から5つのポイントを明確にする。
エントリーのタイミングとしては、⑤のポイントが狙い目となる。
逆張りの手法なのでその後の反発が、①と④のポイントのライン（赤）に被った際に利確することで、大きく利益を上げる事ができるだろう。
ただ、あくまでもエントリーと利確のタイミングは目安であり、トレーダーによってはもう少し遅くしたり、
早くしたりといったことも想定できる。
2-2.トレンドの天井・天底を予測できる
ウォルフ波動理論はトレンドラインを引いた際に見つけることができる訳だが、
ウェーブのポイントが①から⑤までと予め決まっているため、トレンドの天井と天底を予測しやすい。
トレーダーからしたらできるだけ安いポジションで買って、高いポジションで売りたい訳だが、
ウォルフ波動を一つの根拠としてみた場合にかなり予測が立てやすくなるはずだ。
もちろん、ウォルフ波動理論だけを根拠にするのはリスキーだが、他の根拠と合わせてみた際には、
高確率で予測が当たる可能性が高いだろう。
2-3.成立した際の利幅が大きい
ウォルフ波動理論は、上昇トレンドもしくは下降トレンドでの取引手法の一つなので、
横ばい（レンジ）相場よりも利幅がとても大きいのが特徴だ。
その上、エントリーや利確のポイントも判断しやすく、ウォルフ波動の兆候を一度見つける事が出来さえすれば、
高確率で利益を出すことができるだろう。
ただし、逆張り手法は基本的には順張り手法よりも予測を外した際のリスクが大きく、
FX初心者には難しい手法の一つとなるため、間違ってもウォルフ波動の兆候だけで判断しないようにして欲しい。
3.ウォルフ波動理論の唯一のデメリット
ウォルフ波動は主にトレンド相場で現れるチャートパターンだ。
しかし、FX界隈には”トレンド相場が3割で、レンジ相場が7割“という言葉があるほど、全体的に見てトレンド相場はレンジ相場よりも少ない。
その上、ウォルフ波動はトレンド相場のチャートパターンの一つである、
ウェッジ（wedge）に見られる理論なので、FX初心者には見つけにくいのが難点だ。
また、ウェッジとはトレンドラインを引いた際に、先端が尖っているチャートパターンのことを指す。
とはいえ、慣れてくれば簡単に見つけられるようになるため、
最初は根気強く過去検証を行いながらウォルフ波動を見つける練習を行って欲しい。
4.ウォルフ波動の見つけ方・引き方【簡単4ステップ】
ウォルフ波動の見つけ方としては、まずはトレンドラインを引く事自体に慣れていなければならない。
FX投資を1年間以上行っている経験者であれば、トレンドラインを引くのは動作もないことかもしれないが、
FX初心者からしたらどうやって引いて良いのか分からないだろう。
基本をしっかりと押さえた上で取り組まないと、間違った知識でウォルフ波動だと認識してしまいかねないので、くれぐれも注意して欲しい。
4-1.チャートからトレンド（上昇・下降）相場を探し出す
まずはウォルフ波動を見つける前の前提条件として、目の前の相場がトレンドかレンジかの判断を行う必要がある。
ウォルフ波動はトレンド相場からチャートパターンを見つけないといけないため、
目の前の相場がトレンドかレンジかが判断できないことには話にならない。
その上で、上昇トレンドか下降トレンドかを見極めることが必要だ。
簡単な見極め方としては、主に3パターンある。
- 上昇トレンドの場合：高値と安値が切り上がっている
- 下降トレンドの場合：高値と安値が切り下がっている
- レンジ相場の場合：どちらにも該当しない
相場環境の見極めはコツさえ掴めば、FX初心者でも簡単にできるので、難しく考えることではないだろう。
4-2.トレンド相場から”ウェッジ(三角持合い)”を探す
ウェッジとはテクニカル分析で、よく使われるチャートパターンの一つだ。
ウェッジには「上昇ウェッジ」と「下降ウェッジ」の2つの種類が存在し、基本的にはトレンド転換（逆張り）のシグナルとして活用される。
ウォルフ波動では、ウェッジのチャートパターンを見つけられるかどうかが鍵となってくるため、
上昇トレンドや下降トレンドの際には注意深く観察して欲しい。
実際にウェッジかどうか気になる際には、積極的にラインを引いて確かめてみるのが、上手く見つけるコツだ。
4-3.チャネルの角度が緩やかになっているか確認する
トレンド相場からウェッジを見つける事ができ後は、実際にトレンドラインとチャネルラインを引いてみて欲しい。
チャネル（channnel）ラインとは、主にトレンドの強さや方向性を示してくれる、テクニカル分析では欠かせないとても重要なラインだ。
また、トレーダーによってはチャネルラインとトレンドラインを合わせて、”アウトライン”と呼ぶ人もいる。
テクニカル分析の際には必ず使用するラインなので、絶対に覚えておいて欲しい。
ウォルフ波動の兆候としては、チャネルラインの角度が緩くなっていたら疑えるだろう。
逆に、チャネルラインの角度がキツい場合は、ウォルフ波動ではない可能性が高い。
4-4.ウォルフ波動の条件を満たすか確かめる
トレンド相場からウェッジを見つけ、更にチャネルラインが緩やかな角度になっていることが確認できたら、
最後にウォルフ波動のジグザグパターンを探そう。
ジグザグパターンは、ウォルフ波動ではお決まりの動きなので、5つのポイントを実際にチャート上に付けて確認して欲しい。
お決まりの上下に動くジグザグパターンが確認できた際には、その後の逆張り手法で大きく利益を上げる事ができるだろう。
ただし、ウォルフ波動だけでは根拠が弱いため、必ず他の根拠も踏まえた上で、最終的な判断を下すことが大切だ。
ウォルフ波動の動きが確認できたからといって、必ずしも100%その後のチャート予測が当たるとは限らないため、
くれぐれも過信だけはしないで欲しい。
5.ウォルフ波動理論を活用する際の2つの注意点
残念なことにウォルフ波動理論だけでエントリーをしてしまうのは、確度が低いためおすすめしない。
基本的には他の要素と合わせた上で再度検討した方が、よりエントリーや利確などに対して確度が上がるだろう。
ウォルフ波動理論はあくまでも、一つの根拠として考えるようにして欲しい。
5-1.複数のインジケーターを併用する
FX投資における”インジケーター”とは、チャート上やチャートの下に出てくるサポートツールのことだ。
インジケーターを活用することで、チャートが示す意味を分かりやすくしてくれる。
その他、多くの指標を組み合わせて検証することにより、チャートをより正確に把握することが可能だ。
ウォルフ波動理論だけでは確度が低いため、インジケーターのオシレーター系指標（RSIやMACDなど）を活用し、
更に根拠を確かなものにすることが重要であると言える。
5-2.ウォルフ波動のカタチは綺麗に出ることはあまりない
ウォルフ波動のジグザグパターンは、あまりチャートには頻繁に出ることはないため、見慣れないうちは見極めが難しい。
そのため、慣れないうちは過去検証を行いながら、徐々にウォルフ波動の兆候を掴むことが大切になってくる。
デモトレードでもウォルフ波動を見つけて、エントリーや利確を繰り返しながら、確度を高めていくと良いだろう。
もちろん、インジケーターの使い方などに関しても、しっかりと押さえておく必要がある。
6.ウォルフ波動理論に関するよくあるQ&A
ウォルフ波動理論に関する多くの質問や疑問の中から、特に多かった内容だけに絞って、回答を分かりやすくまとめてみた。
ウォルフ波動理論を活用しようかと検討されている方は、参考にして欲しい。
また、取り上げていない内容で気になることがある人は、しっかりと理解するまで自身で調べるのが良いだろう。
“エリオット波動（Elliott Wave）”とは、アメリカの経済学者であるラルフ・ネルソン・エリオット氏が考案した、分析理論のことだ。
簡単に説明すると相場には必ずパターンがあり、一定のサイクルを繰り返しながら動いていくというものだ。
今では多くの専業トレーダーが、活用している分析理論の一つでもある。
また、チャートパターンに関して説明すると、エリオット波動の基本的な考え方としては、推進5波・修正3波となっている。
- 上昇トレンドの場合：5つの波動を描いて上昇し、3つの波動を描いて下降する
- 下降トレンドの場合：5つの波動を描いて下降し、3つの波動を描いて上昇する
ウォルフ波動のチャートパターンと比較すると、全く異なるものだとお分かりいただけるだろう。
結論からいうと、最強の取引手法というわけではない。
FX投資において絶対に勝てる取引手法というのは、そもそも存在しない。
ウォルフ波動理論はあくまでもテクニカル分析における、一つのチャートパターンだということを、しっかりと認識してほいて欲しい。
答えは人によるだろう。
ウォルフ波動理論を活用するトレーダーは多いが、実際にFX投資を行っている人で継続的に利益を出しているのは、
全体の約10%ほどしかいない。
例えウォルフ波動理論が使えたとしても、実際に取引を行う際には様々な要素が絡んでくるため、
あくまでも一つの要因として捉えておくのが良いだろう。
ウォルフ波動理論は、基礎的なFX取引の知識がないと決して見つけることができない。
そのため、FX初心者がいきなりウォルフ波動を見つけたと歓喜し、
いざ仮説通りにエントリーして利確しようとしても、相場は思ったように動かない場合が多い。
失敗例の大半が知識不足だったり、経験不足だったりといった理由となるため、多くはFX初心者が失敗しやすいと言っても過言ではないだろう。
なので、まずはしっかりとFX投資に関して、勉強することが大切だ。
残念ながらFX投資におけるウォルフ波動理論に特化した本は、現時点では出版されていない。
インターネットで検索するとウォルフ波動理論に関する高額な情報商材は販売されているが、FX初心者には正直購入はおすすめしない。
ある程度FXトレーダーとしての経験がある人（最低でも1年以上）であれば、
情報商材なども検討して良いかもしれないが、初心者であれば他の関連本でも充分勉強になるはずだ。
その他、今はYouTubeやブログなどでも専業トレーダーが積極的に情報発信しているので、
最初は無料で使える教材をフル活用して欲しい。
まとめ｜ウォルフ波動理論を学んで勝率を上げよう！
ウォルフ波動理論とは、トレンド時に現れる逆張りの手法ということで、分かりやすく解説してきた。
専業トレーダーの中でもよく使われている、テクニカル分析におけるチャートパターンの一つであるが、
あくまでも一つの要因として捉えて欲しい。
また、ウォルフ波動の見つけ方に関しては、4つのステップをご紹介した。
- チャートからトレンド（上昇・下降）相場を探し出す
- トレンド相場から”ウェッジ(三角持合い)”を探す
- チャネルの角度が緩やかになっているか確認する
- ウォルフ波動の条件を満たすか確かめる
順を追って探し出すことにより、FX初心者でも比較的に簡単に見つけられる可能性が高いため、
是非とも活用して欲しいチャートパターンだと言えるだろう。
その他、理解できなかった部分に関しては今一度、本記事を読み返してもらいたい。
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