【無料】FXのバックテストにおすすめのツール3選!やり方も詳しく解説

  • FXのバックテストはどうやればいいの?
  • そもそもFXにバックテストは必要なの?
  • FXのバックテストにおすすめのツールは?

FX投資におけるバックテストは、専業トレーダーであれば必ず行なっていることだ。

そもそもバックテストとは、特定の取引手法が有効であるか、過去のデータをもとに検証するために行う。

FXの相場は基本的に過去と同じような値動きをしている場合が多いため、

過去のデータを元に検証を行うことで、自身が試そうとしている取引手法の有効性をテストすることができる訳だ。

逆に、バックテストを行わないで最初から実資金を投じてトレードを行うのは、かなりリスクが高いと言える。

そのため、FX初心者であっても面倒に思わずに、必ず新しい取引手法などを試す際には、バックテストを行うことが重要だと言えるだろう。

本記事ではFX投資におけるバックテストの重要性と、その具体的なやり方やおすすめのツールなどを、分かりやすく解説している。

最後まで読んでいただくことで、FXのバックテストの重要性を理解し、今より簡単に行えるようになるだろう。

この記事の結論
  • バックテストは取引手法の有効性を検証する為には欠かせない
  • バックテストは検証ツールを活用することで効率的に行える
  • バックテストは最低限必要なものであり、決して”保障”ではない

1.FX投資でバックテスト(検証)が必要な3つの理由

FX投資でバックテストがなぜ必要なのかに関しては、主に3つの理由がある。

トレーダーの中には「バックテストは必要ない。」と言う人もたまにいるが、

FX投資を行う上ではバックテストは最低限必要なものだと言える。

なぜなら、有効性が全く分からない取引手法で、自身の大事なお金をかけてFXを行うのは、ただのギャンブルトレードになりかねないからだ。

1-1.取引手法の有効性を検証するためには欠かせない

FX投資にはさまざまなテクニカル指標を用いた取引手法が存在するが、必ず実際にトレードを行う際にはバックテストを行う必要がある。

いくらプロの専業トレーダーがすすめる取引手法を採用したとしても、必ずデモトレードなどのツールでバックテストしないことには、

本当の有効性が分からないからだ。

もしかしたら、騙されているかもしれない上に、インターネット上にのっている取引手法が本当にトレードで通用するかは、

バックテストしてみないことには分からない。

1-2.FX相場が形成される仕組み自体は変わらない

バックテストでは、膨大な過去の相場データをもとに行われる。

FXの相場が形成される仕組み自体は、過去も未来も変わらないため、

過去のデータをもとに検証を行うことで、取引手法の有効性を確かめることができる訳だ。

経験豊富な専業トレーダーの多くが

「実際にトレードする前に、バックテストはやったか?」

と聞いてくるのは、FXの相場が形成される根本的な仕組みが、同じだからに他ならないと言える。

1-3.未来の損益を予想しやすくなる

特定の取引手法をバックテストすることで、その手法がどのくらいの利益と損失を生むのかを、ハッキリと把握することができる。

バックテストの段階であまりにも損失が大きければ、その後実際のトレードでは活用しないという判断ができる。

逆に、バックテストの段階で利益の方が大きければ、一度実際のトレードでも試してみよう、という気持ちになるはずだ。

全くバックテストを行わずに、実際のトレードで取引手法を試すのは、かなりリスクが高い。

自身のお金を失いたくないのであれば、最初はバックテストを行った方が良いだろう。

2.FX投資のバックテストは検証ツールで行うべき

FX投資におけるバックテストのやり方は色々とあるが、一番良い方法としては”検証ツール”(MT4など)を活用するやり方だ。

検証ツールを活用することで、バックテストを自動化することができ、膨大な時間をかけて行う手間が省けるからだ。

仮に自身の目やエクセル等を活用して行う場合、検証ツールと比較して、多くの工数と時間がかかってしまう。

バックテストは大変重要なことではあるが、面倒なやり方で行ってしまうと、その後、継続して取り組むのが難しくなるのが難点だ。

そのため、できるだけ効率的に行うためにも、積極的に”検証ツール”等を活用することをおすすめする。

また、特にFX初心者の方は他の時間のかかる方法で行うよりは、検証ツールを最初から活用した方が、

バックテストに対して嫌なイメージを持たなくて済むだろう。

3.FX投資のバックテストの流れ・手順【簡単3ステップ】

FX投資におけるバックテストを初めて行う方は、おおまかな流れに関して、しっかりと把握しておくことが大切だ。

バックテストと聞いて難しく考える人もいるが、基本的なやり方としてはとてもシンプルであり、3つのステップに分けることで簡略的に行える。

また、バックテストだけで終わってしまうのではなく、しっかりとその後も実資金を活用して、トレードしてみることも重要なテストとなる。

3-1.自身の取引手法を定める

FX投資を始めたばかりの初心者などは、よく最初から裁量トレードをしがちだが、

取引手法に関しては例え初めてトレードを行うにしても、しっかりと定めた方が良い。

  • トレードを行う時間帯は?
  • どのくらいの時間トレードを行うのか?
  • 性格や価値観に適した取引手法か?
  • どんなインジケーターを活用するのか?

など具体的に自身に適した取引手法を定めた上で、いきなり実資金で行うのではなく、バックテストを行うことが大切だ。

3-2.デモトレードで取引手法を検証する

自分の取引手法がある程度決まった人は、無料の検証ツールを活用して実際にバックテストを行おう。

デモトレードを何回も行うことで、取引手法の傾向や弱点等を、実際のトレード前に発見することができるはずだ。

また、バックテストでは取引手法の有効性や損益の度合いなども測れるため、

仮にデモトレードで結果が振るわなかったとしても、お金を失うわけではないので落胆することはない。

逆に、バックテストを行わずにいきなり実資金でトレードした場合は、確実に身銭を切ることになるだろう。

3-3.実際のトレードで活用してみる

バックテストで自身の取引手法の有効性が確認できたからといって、そこで安心してはいけない。

デモトレードでの検証はあくまでも”テスト”なので、本当に自分の取引手法が利益をもたらすかは、

実際のトレードで試してみないと分からないからだ。

デモトレードでどれだけ検証したとしても、実際のトレードでは結果が異なる場合が多々ある。

そのため、最初から大金を注ぎ込むのではなく、段階を踏みながら取引手法を徐々に改善していくことが大切だ。

バックテストは1回で終わるのではなくその後も何度も検証しながら、

改善を繰り返すことが継続して勝ち続けるコツだ、と言っても過言ではないだろう。

4.FX投資のバックテストに大人気おすすめツール3選

FX投資におけるバックテストに関する検証ツールの中でも、特に専業トレーダーに人気が高いおすすめのツールを、

3つに絞ってご紹介している。

中には、有料版の検証ツールもあるが、体験版等もリリースされているので気になるツールがある場合は、

まずは実際に触ってみるのが得策だろう。

また、同じ検証ツールでも特徴がそれぞれ異なるため、自身でもしっかりと調べた上で、最終的にどれを使用するか判断して欲しい。

4-1.Forex Tester (フォレックステスター)

出典:Forex Tester
名称Forex Tester (フォレックステスター)
価格フリートライアル版:無料
通常価格:30,299円
対応PCWindows
インストール先https://forextester.jp/

“Forex Tester”は、専業トレーダーの間でも優良ソフトとして評判がよく、活用することで検証時間を大幅に短縮することができる。

例えばForex Testerで、1年分の裁量トレードの検証を行ったとしても、約1週間程度で完了することができだろう。

仮に1年分の検証で資金を増やすことができれば、実際のトレードでも高い確率で、利益を上げることができるだろう。

また、通常価格は約3万円と少し高めだが、セールス時期などを狙って購入することで、より安く手に入れることも可能だ。

4-2.MT4裁量トレード練習君プレミアム

出典:MT4裁量トレード練習君プレミアム
名称MT4裁量トレード練習君プレミアム
価格24,800円(税込)
対応PCWindows
インストール先https://mt4rpremium.atoz-gm.net/

“MT4裁量トレード練習君プレミアム”は、その名の通りMT4のインジケーターが、そのまま使える検証ツールの一つだ。

特徴としてはやはり検証時間の短さにあり、10年分の検証をわずか1ヶ月間で完了させることもできる。

また、MT4のインジケーターがそのまま使えるので、普段からMT4を活用している人は、トレード環境と同じ練習環境が手に入るという訳だ。

その他、公式LINEに登録することで、いつでも気軽に相談することができ、パソコンに不慣れな人でもリモートでセットアップしてくれる。

4-3.Trade Interceptor(トレードインターセプター)

出典:Trade Interceptor
名称Trade Interceptor(トレードインターセプター)
価格無料
対応PCWindows、Mac
インストール先https://www.thinkmarkets.com/en/trading-platforms/thinktrader/

“Trade Interceptor”は、ThinkMarkets社が運営しているモバイル向けの検証ツールだ。

他の検証ツールとは違い、無料でインストールできるようになっており、その後の課金等も特にない。

また、モバイル向けではあるが、パソコンにインストールすることも可能だ。

スマホからでも、約80以上のインジケーターが活用できるようになっており、パソコンで行うような分析を再現することができる。

設定方法も簡単な仕様となっているため、FX初心者でも気軽に活用できるはずだ。

5.FX投資でバックテストを行う際の主な3つの注意点

FXでバックテストを行う際には、主に3つの注意点を抑えておくことが大切だ。

バックテストはその名の通り、あくまでも”テスト”でしかないため、

いくら検証で良い結果を出しても実際のトレードで通用するかは分からない。

また、デモトレードでは実際に自分のお金を失うことはないが、実際のトレードでは負ければ確実に資金を失うため、緊張感も全く異なる。

5-1.実際のトレードでは緊張感が増す

駆け出しのトレーダーの中には、いつまでもデモトレードで検証するばかりで、実際に実資金を投じてトレードすることに踏み込めない人も多い。

学校の部活動と同じで、いつまでも練習ばかりしていては、本番の試合で勝つことはできないだろう。

実際に練習で培った技術や知識を、本番で何度も試してみることで、初めて勝利を得ることができる。

もちろん、最初は負けることが多くなることも、覚悟しなければならない。

FX投資でも同じで、いつまでも練習を行っていたのでは、実際に利益を上げることはできない。

確かに実資金を投じてFXトレードを行うのは、緊張感が伴い勇気がいることだ。

そのため、最初は負けても良い気持ちで、少額からチャレンジすることが大切になる。

5-2.最低限必要なものであり決して”保障”ではない

バックテストはあくまでもFX投資を行う上で、最低限必要なものであり、

デモトレードで勝てるからといって決して勝利が約束された”保障”ではない。

FX投資を行うのであれば、バックテストは行っていおた方が良いという話で、それだけで勝てるかどうかは保障されてはいないということだ。

どれだけ過去の相場で勝てたとしても、未来の相場で勝てるかどうかは誰にも分からないからだ。

そのため、決してバックテストを過信し過ぎてはいけない。

5-3.バックテストをした後も改善を怠らない

バックテストは継続して定期的に行うものであり、1回のバックテストで満足してその後は何もやらない、というのは間違った行動だ。

仮にバックテストで良い結果が出たとしても、実際のトレードでは勝てないということはよくあることなので、

都度にバックテストを行い改善していく必要がある

変な驕りは大きな損失に繋がりかねないため、常に目の前の状況を疑いながら、根拠を考えることが大切だと言えるだろう。

6.FX投資のバックテストに関するよくあるQ&A

FX投資のバックテストに関する多くの質問や悩みの中から、特に多かった内容だけに絞って、それぞれ回答を分かりやすくまとめてみた。

バックテストに関することで、同じように悩んでいる人は、是非とも参考にして欲しい。

また、取り上げていない内容で気になることがある人は、自身でしっかりと納得がいくまで調べた上で、行動するようにすること。

結論からいうと、FX投資を行うのであればバックテストは必須だ。

バックテストが必要な理由としては、主に3つある。

  1. 取引手法の有効性を検証するためには欠かせない
  2. FX相場が形成される仕組み自体は変わらない
  3. 未来の損益を予想しやすくなる

中でも、取引手法の有効性を検証するためには、バックテストは欠かせないといえる。

バックテストを行わないということは、何も練習しないで試合に臨むようなものだからだ。

Python (パイソン)とは、人工知能などの最先端技術の開発にも、活用されているプログラミング言語の一つだ。

FX投資のシステムトレードにPythonが活用されることがあるが、バックテストをPythonで行うのは、基本的にはおすすめしない。

なぜなら、すでにMT4などの便利な検証ツールが出回っているため、わざわざ活用することはないからだ。

検証ツールの中には有料版もあるが、必ずトライアルとして無料版が活用できるようになっている。

また、完全に無料の検証ツールを探しているのであれば、Trade Interceptor(トレードインターセプター)などがおすすめだろう。

とはいえ、検証ツールによって向き不向きがあるため、一度触ってみてから今後活用するか判断すると良い。

FX投資のバックテストをスマホで気軽に行いたい場合は、Trade Interceptor(トレードインターセプター)がおすすめだろう。

その他にも、FXプライムby GMOが提供している”ちょいトレ”などもおすすめだ。

アプリによってUI(ユーザーインターフェイス)が異なるため、デザイン性が高く、操作しやすいものを選ぶことをおすすめする。

結論からいうと、100%バックテストが信用できるわけではない。

あくまでもバックテストは、過去の相場をもとに検証を行うため、必ずしも未来の相場で通用するかは分からないからだ。

そのため、バックテストを過信しすぎてしまうのは、リスクが高いと言える。

バックテストで良い結果が出たとしても、あくまでも勝率が高い取引手法である、という認識で実際のトレードに活用するのが得策だ。

まとめ|FX投資のバックテストは取引手法の有効性を検証する為には欠かせない!

FXのバックテストの重要性とその具体的なやり方や、おすすめの検証ツールをわかりやすく解説してきた。

中でも、おすすめの検証ツールは3つ。

  1. Forex Tester (フォレックステスター)
  2. MT4裁量トレード練習君プレミアム
  3. Trade Interceptor(トレードインターセプター)

どれも使い勝手が良い検証ツールな上に、すでに多くの専業トレーダーが活用しているため、信頼性も厚いといえる。

バックテストは、取引手法の有効性を確かめるために欠かせないことなので、是非とも実際にトレードを行う前には実行して欲しい。

また、FX投資におけるバックテストは、検証ツールを活用することで時間を大幅に短縮できるため、積極的に使うように心がけよう。

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