フィボナッチ比率のFX取引での使い方・引き方を解説!【勝率アップ】

  • フィボナッチとはどんなFX手法なの?
  • フィボナッチ比率のラインの引き方は?
  • フィボナッチ比率を学べるおすすめ本は

FX投資におけるフィボナッチとは、テクニカル分析で使われる手法の一つだ。

専業トレーダーの間では当たり前のように活用されている手法であり、

FX初心者であれば最初に覚えておきたいテクニカル分析のための手法、と言っても過言ではない。

逆に、フィボナッチすらも知識として取り入れていないFXトレーダーは、実際の取引で勝つことは難しいだろう。

それほどフィボナッチはFX投資においては、初歩的なテクニカル分析手法なのだ。

本記事ではフィボナッチの黄金比率を活用したテクニカル分析のやり方や、実際のラインの引き方等に関して、

どこよりも分かりやすく解説している。

最後まで読んで頂くことで、FX初心者でもフィボナッチ比率を活用した取引手法を、マスターすることができるだろう。

この記事の結論
  • フィボナッチ比率はテクニカル分析でよく活用される手法である
  • フィボナッチはFX初心者であれば必ず序盤で覚えておきたい手法の一つ
  • フィボナッチを使う際には必ずインジケーターと組み合わせること

1.フィボナッチとはFX相場の一時的な押し目・戻りを予測する手法

出典:fx neet orz

フィボナッチとは、イタリアの数学者”レオナルド・フィボナッチ”氏が研究した、

「フィボナッチ級数」を意味している。

FX投資の世界では、よく使われるテクニカル分析手法の一つだ。

実際にはフィボナッチの中にも様々な種類の取引手法が存在しているが、

FXトレーダーの中でもよく使われているのが、フィボナッチ・リトレースメント(Fibonacci Retracement)になる。

リトレースメントとは「引き返す、後戻りする」といった意味がある。

主にトレンド相場で活用されることが多く、上昇トレンドにおける押し目や、

下降トレンドにおける一時的な戻りの目標価格を判断する指標として活用される。

そのため、フィボナッチ・リトレースメントは、目安とした比率のラインを基に転換のポイントを見極めて、

順張り・逆張りを行うのに効果的な手法だ。

2.フィボナッチ比率を活用したFX手法・使い方

FX投資におけるフィボナッチ手法には、黄金比と呼ばれる比率が存在する。

過去検証とは違い、これからの値動きを予測するための分析手法なので、

比率に基づいたラインを参考にしながら順張り・逆張りで利益を出すのが狙いだ。

FX初心者でもラインの引き方にさえ慣れてしまえば、毎回フィボナッチ比率を基にして、次の値動きを予測することができるだろう。

ただし、根拠としてはフィボナッチ比率だけでは心許ないため、インジケーターを上手く活用しながら確度を高めてもらいたい。

2-1.フィボナッチ比率の一般的に扱われる数値

フィボナッチ比率は、有名な名画である”モナ・リザ”の絵や、

ギリシャ(アテネ)にある”パルテノン神殿”の構造にも用いられている黄金比である。

FX投資ではフィボナッチ比率の中でも、特に38.2%、61.8%、補足的に50%の水準がよく使われる。

3つの比率は人間心理などにおいてはよく現れる代表的な数字であり、

FX投資のみならず株式投資のチャートでも頻繁に活用される比率だ。

2-2.フィボナッチ比率を活用した様々な手法

FX投資におけるフィボナッチ比率を活用した、テクニカル分析手法は多岐にわたる。

  • フィボナッチ・リトレースメント
  • フィボナッチ・アーク
  • フィボナッチ・ファン
  • フィボナッチ・タイムゾーン など

中でもよく活用されるのが”フィボナッチ・リトリースメント“だが、

ある程度フィボナッチ比率に慣れてきたのでれば、他の手法も活用してみると良いだろう。

ただし、フィボナッチ比率は万能ではないため、あくまでも一つの根拠として考えて欲しい。

フィボナッチ比率だけを根拠にFX取引を行うのは、確度が弱いためおすすめしない。

3.フィボナッチ比率のラインの引き方

フィボナッチ比率を活用する際には、主にトレンド相場でありレンジ相場では基本的には活用しない

トレンド相場における一時的な押し目や戻りを予測したり、トレンド転換などの変わり目を予測する際によく活用される。

また、ラインの引き方自体はとても簡単で、上昇トレンドであれば安値から高値までラインを引き、

その間にフィボナ比率を目安として引くだけだ。

逆に下降トレンドであれば高値から安値までラインを引いて、フィボナ比率を参考に次の値動きを予測するのが定石とされる。

3-1.上昇トレンド中のフィボナッチ比率の引き方

上昇トレンド相場の場合は、気になるチャート箇所を見つけて、最初に安値から高値までのラインを引く。

その上で、高値のポイントを0%と仮定し、安値にかけてフィボナッチ比率である38.2%と50%、

61%のラインを横に引くだけで完了となる。

するとフィボナッチ比率のラインを目安に、”レジサポライン”を見つけることが容易にできるはずだ。

レジサポラインとは、簡単にいえばチャート上での上昇・下降が跳ね返る地点の目安を意味する。

また、レジサポラインは”レジスタンスライン”と”サポートライン”の略称でもある。

フィボナッチ比率を引くことで、レジサポラインが分かるようになり、

上昇トレンドにおける押し目・戻りなどの目安が分かりやすくなる訳だ。

3-2.下降トレンド中のフィボナッチ比率の引き方

フィボナッチ比率を活用して、分析する際には下降トレンドである場合、高値から安値に向かって最初にラインを引く。

ラインを引く際には、“実体”か”ひげ”どちらかに統一して引くことを意識して欲しい。

その後、フィボナッチ比率を下の安値ポイントを0%として、横にラインを引いてあげれば完成だ。

下降トレンドでもフィボナッチ比率を引くことで、レジサポラインが見えてくるため、

トレンド転換がいつどのタイミングで起こるのかなども予測しやすくなる。

4.フィボナッチ比率をFX取引で活用する際の3つの注意点

フィボナッチ比率をFX取引では欠かせない分析手法ではあるが、決して万能ではないため過信してはいけない。

FX投資におけるテクニカル分析の手法としては、フィボナッチ比率以外にも沢山のやり方があり、

それぞれにしっかりとした根拠が存在する。

そのため、フィボナッチ比率だけを信じて取引を行うのではなく、

他の要素と組み合わせて確度を高めることが大切になってくる訳だ。

4-1.ラインは必ずしも正確に引く必要はない

フィボナッチ比率を活用してラインを引くことにより、レジサポラインが見えてくるが、必ずしもライン上で反発する訳ではない。

実際にはレジサポライン上で反発するのは稀なケースであり、大体が少しずれた位置で反発するケースが多い。

そのため、必ずしもラインを正確に引く必要性はなく、あくまでも目安として参考程度に捉えて、判断するのが得策だと言えるだろう。

4-2.フィボナッチ比率だけを信用しない

フィボナッチ比率を活用する際には、必ずインジケーターと組み合わせて利用することをおすすめする。

なぜなら、フィボナッチ比率だけではトレードの根拠としては弱いからだ。

確かにフィボナッチ比率はFX業界では、黄金比と呼ばれており信頼性が高い分析手法であるが、

レジサポラインが判明したとしても全く予想外の動きをすることも多い。

そのため、あくまでもフィボナッチ比率は、テクニカル分析における手段の一つとして考えて、活用するのが良いといえる。

4-3.急な相場変動ではフィボナッチは機能しない

フィボナッチ比率はほとんど時間差がなく、複数のラインに触れるほどの価格変動が起きている相場では、

全く意味をなさない場合が多い。

乱高下の勢いが強過ぎるが故に、フィボナッチ比率としてラインを引いても突き抜けることが多くなる場合は、

くれぐれも注意して欲しい。

フィボナッチ比率はあくまでも、相場がある程度落ち着いている状態で使える分析手法であるため、

価格変動が激しい時には活用を控えるべきだ。

また、FX初心者は特に価格相場の変動率(ボラティリティ)が高い時は、下手に動かない方が良いだろう。

5.フィボナッチ比率のFX手法に関して学べるおすすめ本3選

FX投資におけるフィボナッチ比率は、多くの専業トレーダーが活用していることからも、沢山の本で詳しく取り上げられている。

中でも代表的なフィボナッチに関するおすすめの本を、3つに絞ってそれぞれ紹介しているので参考にして欲しい。

また、最近は本だけではなくYouTube動画などでも、多くの専業トレーダーが情報発信しているため、

動画で解説を視聴するのもおすすめの勉強法だ。

5-1.フィボナッチ逆張り売買法

出典:Amazon

最初にご紹介する「フィボナッチ逆張り売買法」は、海外の専業トレーダーが書いたフィボナッチに特化した専門書となっている。

FX初心者には少し難易度が高い本の内容となっているが、中・上級者のFXトレーダーであれば難なく理解できるだろう。

何度も繰り返し読むことで理解が深まっていく本なので、フィボナッチに関して詳しく学びたい方は、

是非とも一度手に取って欲しい。

5-2.フィボナッチブレイクアウト売買法

出典:Amazon

「フィボナッチブレイクアウト売買法」は、FXの専業トレーダーでもあり著名なトレーディング講師でもある、

“ロバート・マイナー”が手がけた一冊だ。

基本的なフィボナッチ比率の活用法はもとより、高度なテクニカル分析手法まで詳しく解説されている。

本来フィボナッチ比率はFX投資でけではなく、株式や先物等でもよく活用されている手法の一つだ。

本書ではフィボナッチの汎用的な活用法が分かりやすく解説されているため、

FX初心者でも繰り返し読むことで理解をより深めることができるだろう。

5-3.FX MACD+ フィボナッチ勝率アップの法則

出典:Amazon

本書はFX専業トレーダーとして活躍している、”平田 啓”さんが書かれた一冊だ。

日本人の専業トレーダーが書かれているため、体系的に分かりやすく内容がまとまっており、

FX初心者でも比較的に内容を理解しやすいだろう。

また、本書の価格もそれほど高くないため、フィボナッチ比率を活用した

フィボナッチ・リトレースメント手法での取引を検討されている方は、是非とも読んで欲しい。

6.フィボナッチ比率のFX手法に関するよくあるQ&A

FX投資におけるフィボナッチ比率に関する多くの質問や悩みの中から、特に多かった内容だけに絞って、

それぞれ分かりやすく回答をまとめてみた。

フィボナッチ比率はFX投資を行う上では、必ず押さえておきたい手法の一つなので、必ず目を通しておいて欲しい。

また、取り上げていない内容で気になることがある人は、自身でしっかりと調べて納得した上で、

実際に取引に活用するように。

フィボナッチ比率のラインは、時間足が変わっても同じように活用できる。

そのため、実際に活用する際には一つの時間足だけで分析するのではなく、

他の時間足でも同じようにフィボナッチ比率を活用して、ラインを引いて判断する方が良いでしょう。

MT4でフィボナッチ比率を活用する際には、3つのステップで簡単に行うことができる。

  1. “挿入タブ”から”フィボナッチ”を選択する
  2. 次に”エキスパンション”を選択する
  3. トレンドの起点(安値)をクリックし、高値までドラッグしてラインを引く

後は、レジサポラインを参考にしながら、他のインジケーターも組み合わせて取引をするだけだ。

結論からいうと、フィボナッチ比率は最強の取引手法という訳ではない。

FX投資において必ず勝てる取引手法というものはそもそも存在せず、フィボナッチ比率に関してもあくまでも、

テクニカル分析における判断要素の一つということになる。

とはいえ、フィボナッチ比率は専業トレーダーも頻繁に活用している分析手法なので、覚えておいて損はない。

フィボナッチ比率はFX投資だけではなく、他の分野でも頻繁に活用されている黄金比だ。

そのため、決して意味がない訳ではない。

その証拠として今でも多くのFXトレーダーが活用している。

結論からいうと、MT4スマホアプリを活用することで、スマホでもフィボナッチのラインを引くことができる。

フィボナッチ以外にもMT4スマホアプリには、24種類のもの分析ツールが装備されており、

大変使い勝手が良いアプリとして実際に活用している人も多い。

まだ一度も使ったことがない方は、この機会に活用を検討してみてはいかがだろうか。

まとめ|フィボナッチ比率をFX取引で活用し勝率を高めよう!

フィボナッチ比率とは、黄金比を活用したテクニカル分析における、手法の一つとして解説してきた。

既に多くの専業トレーダーが活用している手法のであるため、

FX初心者は実際の取引を行う前にしっかりと勉強して、活用方法をマスターして欲しい。

フィボナッチ比率を扱えるようになることで、レジサポラインが分かりやすくなり、

他の要素と組み合わせることでより利益を出しやすくなることだろう。

また、解説を読んで十分に理解できなかった人は、YouTube動画などを繰り返し視聴し、

しっかりと理解を深めた上でFX取引に取り組むように。

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