【必須】FX過去検証の方法・簡単6ステップをご紹介!初心者でも大丈夫

  • FX投資に検証は必要なの?
  • 具体的な検証方法とは?
  • FX初心者におすすめの検証ソフトは?

FX投資で勝率を上げるためには、必ず過去検証が必要だ。

過去検証を行うことで取引手法の再現性を上げることができる上に、

継続して勝つためには過去検証を行いながら、市場に最適化していく必要がある。

プロの専業トレーダーでも欠かさず定期的に過去検証を行いながら、取引手法を調整しているため、

FX投資で勝ちたければ過去検証は必須と言っても過言ではない。

しかし、実際にFX投資を行っているほとんどの人が、正しい過去検証が行えていないのが事実だ。

本記事ではFX投資で過去検証を行う具体的な理由や必要性、その方法までに関して余すことなく、FX初心者でも分かりやすく解説している。

最後まで読んで頂くことで、FX投資における正しい過去検証をマスターし、勝率を今よりも上げる事ができるだろう。

この記事の結論
  • 過去検証を行うことで勝率を上げることができる
  • 過去検証の方法は6つのステップで簡単に行える
  • 過去検証を行う際には専用ソフトやアプリを活用しよう

1.FX投資で過去検証を行う理由・必要性

FX投資において過去検証を行うことは、取引を行う上での自信にも繋がる。

過去検証を行い現在採用している取引手法に対して、確かな再現性が確認できたのであれば、その後も同じ手法で勝つことができるだろう。

継続して勝つことができれば、自ずと取引に対して自信がついてくるため、FX初心者こそ積極的に過去検証を行って欲しい。

また、過去検証を行う上で大事なことは、検証自体に完璧を求めないことだ。

過去検証のやり方としては、目的によってさまざまな方法があるため、絶対的な正解はないからだ。

特にFX初心者は過去検証にこわだり過ぎて、本来の目的を見失ってしまうケースが多いため注意して欲しい。

2.FX投資の過去検証のやり方・方法【簡単6ステップ】

FX投資における過去検証のやり方としては、目的に応じてさまざまな方法がある。

しかし、本質はどれも変わりないので、ご紹介している6つのステップを基に考える癖をつけて欲しい。

FX初心者ほど過去検証と聞くと難しく捉えがちだが、実際にはそれほど難しいものではないので、一つずつ確実に取り組んでもらいたい。

※ あくまでも取引におけるルールに関する、過去検証を前提として説明している。

2-1.何を検証するのかを明確にする(目的)

FX投資の過去検証を行う際には、最初にその目的を明確にする必要がある。

具体的な目的も決めずに過去検証を行ってしまうと大体の場合、過去チャートを閲覧して終わりということになりかねない。

また、過去検証を行う際の目的はできるだけシンプルなものがおすすめだ。

例えば…

  • 他のFX投資サイトで見つけた取引手法は使えるのか?
  • 実際のトレード中に思いついた取引手法は通用するのか?
  • 他の根拠Aを追加したら勝率は上がるのか?

などが挙げられる。

過去検証を行う目的をできるだけシンプルにすることで、ゴールが明確になりやすい。

2-2.過去チャートを参考にデータを洗い出す

過去検証の目的が明確に決まった後は、実際に過去チャートから必要なデータを、洗い出していく作業に取り組む。

過去チャートに関しては、過去検証ソフトである”MT4(メタトレーダー4)”を活用するのがおすすめだ。

MT4は世界でもっともメジャーな検証ツールとして、多くのFXトレーダーに活用されている信頼できる過去検証ソフトの一つだ。

最初に定めた過去検証の目的に関連する必要データを、MT4を活用することで効率に集められるだろう。

また、データを実際に集める際には、4つのことに注意して欲しい。

  1. 何に関するデータを集めようとしているのか明確にする
  2. データを閲覧しながら気づいたことは毎回メモする
  3. 自身の都合の良いデータだけを集めない
  4. 過去チャート上のポイントには印を付ける

過去チャートのデータを確認していると、必ず自身でも気づくことが多々あると思うので、

都度に別のメモ用紙に書き留めておくことが重要だ。

また、データを集めているとついつい自身の都合の良いデータだけに着目しがちになるため、

都合の良いデータだけを集めないように注意して欲しい。

その他、過去チャート上に印を直接つけておくことで、一目で傾向が分かりやすくなるため、是非とも実践するように。

2-3.データを項目別に集計する

目的に適した過去の取引データを洗い出したら、今度は洗い出したデータを見やすいように、エクセル等にまとめる作業だ。

  • 過去検証する期間、日付
  • 通貨ペア(勝ち負け)
  • 上位足の状況(環境)
  • 利確、損切りのタイミング など

項目別にエクセスでまとめることで、より過去チャートのデータを視覚化できるようになる。

過去検証を本格的に行う前段階としては、とても重要な作業なので手を抜かずに、しっかりとデータをまとめるように。

また、必要ではないデータなどは削り、逆に必要なデータはどんどんプラスしていく事が大切だ。

2-4.仮設や条件等に基づきデータをブラッシュアップする

③でエクセルにまとめた項目別の過去検証データを基に、今度は②でデータを洗い出した際の気づきや条件を参考にしながら、

データ項目に反映させてブラッシュアップさせていく作業だ。

例えば…

「上昇トレンドから下降トレンドへ反転した際の決済のタイミング」

に関して気づきを得たのであれば、③のまとめた項目データにトレンドが変わる直前のデータなどが、必要となるだろう。

逆に、気付きや仮説に対して関係のないデータ項目などは、積極的に削除していくことで、

より取引手法に対しての検証が行いやすくなる。

また、まとめたデータを仮設や気づき等に基づきブラッシュアップさせていくことで、取引に対する再現性を高めることができる訳だ。

2-5.②から④を繰り返し優位性のあるルールを作る

できるだけ優位性のある取引ルールを定めるためにも、妥協せずに②から④のステップを繰り返し行っていこう。

  1. 過去チャートからデータを洗い出す
  2. 見やすいようにデータ項目別に集計する
  3. 仮説や気づき・条件などを加えて、データをブラッシュアップする

慣れていない人だと苦痛に感じる人もいるかもしれないが、FX投資の過去検証ではとても大切な作業なので、しっかりと行って欲しい。

特にFX初心者は最初は慣れない作業だと感じるだろうが、回数をこなすうちに徐々にやりやすくなるため、

途中で投げ出さずにやり抜くことが大切だ。

繰り返し行う事で、必ず優位性のある取引ルールが作れる事だろう。

2-6.定めたルールで実際に取引を行う(実践)

過去検証の最終段階として、実際に優位性のある取引ルールであるかどうかを、検証しなければいけない。

もちろん、最初から実資金で取引を行うのではなくデモトレードでも良いのだが、

どうしてもデモトレードだとエントリーが適当になりがちなので、できれば実践で行って欲しい。

実資金で取引を行う際には、最初は必ず少額から行うのが鉄則だ。

過去検証をしっかりと行った事で、優位性のある取引ルールが確立できた自信があるのは十分理解できるが、

最初から大金で行ってしまうと、負けた際に自信を失いかねない。

そのため、あくまでも過去検証の最終段階として、まずは少額からエントリーする事が大切となってくる。

3.FX投資で過去検証を行う際の3つの注意点

FX投資で過去検証を行う際に、一番気をつけておきたい事としては、こだわり過ぎないことだ。

あくまでも過去検証では、優位性のある取引手法を見つけるためのものであり、過去検証ばかりに時間を費やしている場合ではない。

スポーツでも練習はとても大事な事だが、それ以上に実践で直接学びながら試すことがとても重要である。

3-1.過去検証にこだわり過ぎない

特にFX初心者に多い事だが、あまりにも過去検証にばかりこだわり過ぎて、いつまだ経っても実践へ取り組まない人がいる。

デモトレードでも取引手法を試すことは大変重要な事だが、あくまでもデモトレードは練習であり、

実資金を使って取引を行う事と比較すると全く意味が異なる。

実際に実資金を活用してFXトレードを行う事で、本当に優位性のある取引手法であるかが検証されるため、

ある程度のところで見切りをつけて実践に臨んで欲しい。

3-2.”過去検証”自体を難しく考えない

FX初心者の中には過去検証はとても難しいものであり、ビギナーには手に負えないと感じている人も少なくない。

確かにとことん過去検証を行うのであれば、かなりの時間と労力が必要となるが、

決して”過去検証”自体は、難しいものではないので安心して欲しい。

過去検証を簡単に説明すると、特定の取引手法に対して優位性や再現性があるかどうかを、調べるための方法という訳だ。

3-3.一度の過去検証で満足しない(継続する)

FX投資ではプロの専業トレーダーでも、一つの取引手法だけで長期的に勝つのは難しいとされている。

そのため、定期的に取引手法に関して相場を基に検証を行い、都度に取引手法の微調整を行っている訳だ。

FX投資で長期的なスパンで勝ち続けたいと思っている人は、一度の過去検証で満足せずに定期的に検証しつつ、

市場に合わせて最適化してくことが求められる。

4.FX投資の過去検証を無駄だと思っている人の3つの共通点

FX投資を行っている人の中には、過去検証が無駄だと思っている人も中にはいる。

実際には過去検証はFX投資で勝率を上げるためには、必要不可欠といっても過言ではない。

ではなぜ過去検証を無駄だと思ってしまうのかというと、殆どの人が過去検証の具体的なやり方を知らないからだ。

4-1.現在のチャートの流れしか見ていない

FX投資における過去検証を無駄だと思っている人にありがちなのが、現在のチャートの流れしか見てないパターンだ。

特にFX初心者は過去検証の重要性に関して、しっかりと理解できていないことから、

現在のチャートの流れだけで判断して、アドリブで取引を行っている場合が多い。

毎回アドリブで取引を行っても取引手法に再現性がない上、長期的なスパンで勝つことはかなり難しいだろう。

4-2.そもそも過去検証のやり方が分かっていない

スポーツ競技においても基礎的な知識やルールを覚えてないと、上手くプレーするのは難しい。

FX投資の過去検証に関しても同じことで、憶測だけで過去検証を行っても難しいため、

必ず最初は過去検証に関しての正しいやり方を学ぶことが大切だ。

正しいやり方や知識を最初にしっかりと抑えてないと、実際に過去検証を行っても意味がない結果となってしまう。

4-3.FX界隈のただの伝統的な作業だと思っている

FX業界では耳が痛いほど過去検証の重要性に関して、発信されている人が多い。

しかし、過去検証を重要だと思わない一部の人からすると、ただの面倒な作業の押し付けだと感じてしまう人も少なくない。

だが実際には、プロの専業トレーダーですら定期的に過去検証を行い、都度に取引手法を市場に最適化しているのだから、

過去検証はただの面倒な作業という訳でなないのだ。

5.FX投資で過去検証の重要性を叫ぶ億トレーダー3選

FX投資における過去検証の重要性に関しては、数億円単位で稼いでる専業トレーダーも、口を揃えて言っていることだ。

長く継続的に勝ち続けている専業トレーダーこそ、日頃から分析と改善を怠らない上に、定期的に過去検証の時間をしっかりと設けている。

また、取引手法や過去検証のやり方はそれぞれなので、自身に適したやり方で取り組むのも一つの方法だろう。

5-1.竹井祐介

出典:竹井 祐介 公式サイト

竹井祐介(たけい ゆうすけ)さんは、FX投資を初めてから約2年で1,000万円の月収を達成し、

その後も14年以上FXでトレードを続けられている方だ。

投資家としてFXだけではなくさまざまな活動を行われており、全国各地での講演会や書籍の出版なども行われている。

最近はYouTubeでも積極的にFX投資に関する情報を発信されており、FX初心者としては大変勉強になるはずだ。

5-2.ボビーオロゴン

外国人タレントとして有名なボビーオロゴンさんは、芸能界や格闘技界をはじめとした様々な分野で活躍されている大変な有名人だ。

しかし、FX投資家としてもかなりの実力者だということを、知っている人は少ないだろう。

彼自信8年以上FXで投資を行っており、経済に関してかなり詳しいという噂がある。

基本的には長期スパンで見て、利益が上がれば良いという考え方であり、取引手法は主に両建てが主流だ。

5-3.たばてぃん(田畑 昇人

出典:田畑 昇人の公式FXブログ

たばてぃんの愛称をもつ田畑 昇人(たばた しょうと)さんは、元は東京大学院の卒業生であり、FX投資歴は10年以上の大ベテランだ。

今まで数々のメディアでも取り上げられたことがある専業トレーダーで、書籍の出版なども行われている。

ご自身の公式ブログでは、FX投資に関する様々な役立つ情報を惜しみなく発信されているため、FX初心者は是非とも参考にして欲しい。

6.FX投資の過去検証に役立つおすすめソフト・アプリ3選

FX投資では取引における、過去検証のための専用ソフトやアプリが存在する。

専用のソフトやアプリを活用することで、より過去検証が行いやすくなる上にデモトレードも合わせて行えるため、

ソフトやアプリだけで過去検証を完結させることができる。

また、中には無料で活用できるソフト等もあるため、FX初心者でも気軽に使うことができるのも特徴の一つだ。

6-1.フォレックステスター4(FT4)

出典:フォレックステスター4(FT4)公式サイト

フォレックステスター4(FT4)は有料のPC専用ソフトであり、フリートライヤル版であれば最初の1ヶ月間は、無料で活用することができる。

ソフトの特徴としては、主に過去検証の時間を短縮できることや、的確なエントリーのタイミングが分かるようになるなどが挙げられる。

ソフト自体の料金はベーシックプランでも、約3万円からと少し高い設定となっているが、

長期的に見ると最初に初期投資としてソフトにお金をかけることは、大変重要なことだ。

6-2.MT4裁量トレード練習君プレミアム

出典:MT4裁量トレード練習君プレミアム 公式サイト

MT4裁量トレード練習君プレミアムは、その名の通りデモトレードに特化した検証専用ソフトであり、

FX初心者がよく活用するツールと言っても過言ではない。

ソフトの販売を開始してからすでに、約3万回以上のダウンロードを記録しており、幅広い層が今も尚活用しているルールの一つだ。

また、ソフト自体の料金は24,800円(税込)となっており、基本的にはWindows専用となっているため、

MacPCをお使いの人はセットアップに少々時間が掛かるだろう。

6-3.FX検証(App Storeアプリ)

出典:App Store

“FX検証”は、スマホ専用の検証アプリだ。

PC版の検証ソフトとは違い、スマホで手軽に過去検証が行える他、価格も120円ととてもリーズナブルな点が特徴だと言えるだろう。

実際に利用者の口コミや評判もかなり良い上に、これまでリリースされたFX検証に関するアプリの中でも、

群を抜く使いやすさとなっている。

まとめ|FX投資の過去検証の方法を覚えて勝率を上げよう!

FX投資に関する過去検証の重要性や具体的なやり方・方法に関して、分かりやすく解説してきた。

FX初心者でも6つのステップを、しっかりと理解して一つずつ取り組むことで、簡単に過去検証を行うことができるだろう。

  1. 何を検証するのかを明確にする(目的)
  2. 過去チャートを参考にデータを洗い出す
  3. データを項目別に集計する
  4. 仮設や条件等に基づきデータをブラッシュアップする
  5. ②から④を繰り返し優位性のあるルールを作る
  6. 定めたルールで実際に取引を行う(実践)

また、過去検証を実際に行う際には、最初に明確な目的を定めた上で行うことが大切だ。

目的が曖昧だと過去検証を行う意味がないので、その点だけ十分に注意して欲しい。

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