FXで大衆心理は効果絶大!理解必須の知識5選・オススメの分析方法

  • FX投資における大衆心理とは?
  • 大衆心理を理解するにはどうすればいい?
  • 大衆心理が分かるインジケーターは?

そもそも大衆心理とは、チャート形成に影響与える要因の一つであり、FXトレーダーであれば必ず理解しておかなければならないものだ。

FX投資に限らず、株式投資や仮想通貨などの市場では、チャートが大衆心理に大きく影響される。

トレーダーの大衆心理を理解することで、優位性のあるトレードが行えるが、

逆に理解していないと自身も大衆心理により無意識に流されてしまい、損失を出す恐れがある。

大衆心理と同調することも、時には正解だといえるかも知れないが、あくまでも裏付けとして根拠がしっかりと取れていることが前提条件だ。

本記事ではFX投資における大衆心理の重要性と、理解するための5つの考え方等に関して、初心者でも分かりやすく解説している。

最後まで読んでいただくことで、FX投資における大衆心理をしっかりと理解し、優位性のあるトレードが行えるようになるだろう。

この記事の結論
  • FX投資における大衆心理とは相場に影響を与える要因の一つ
  • 大衆心理を理解することで優位性が高いトレードができる
  • 大衆心理を利用した機関投資家の操作には要注意

1.FX投資における大衆心理とは相場に影響を与える要因

大衆心理とは、集団心理とも呼ばれるものであり、人が集まることで起こる群集特有の意識状態のことを意味している。

FX投資では市場に様々な要素が絡み合い、日々チャート形状が変化している。

チャート形状には時事的なニュースや、大衆心理が大きく影響しており、

トレーダーはそれらを見抜くために”テクニカル分析”や、”ファンダメンタル分析”を行う訳だ。

中でも大衆心理に関しては、トレーダー自身も無意識に同調しやすいため、必ず特性に関して理解しておかなければならない。

特に日本人は、和や協調性が美徳とされている文化的な背景もあり、大衆心理に影響を受けやすい傾向がある。

大衆心理をしっかりと理解することで、相場を俯瞰的にみることができ、冷静に目の前の取引判断ができるようになる。

相場には「人の行く裏に道あり花の山」という言葉もあるように、都度に大衆心理に同調してばかりでは、

長期的に勝てる見込みは低いといえるだろう。

プロの専業トレーダーともなると、大衆がトレンドだと思い始めた頃には、すでに逆のポジションをクローズし始めている。

大衆心理を意識してトレードできるようになると、より優位性が高いトレードができるという訳だ。

2.FX投資の大衆心理を理解する為の5つの考え方

FXトレードで負ける原因にもなっている、大衆心理の代表的な5つの考え方に関して、それぞれ分かりやすくまとめてみた。

特にFX初心者が陥りやすい考え方なので、それぞれ必ず目を通して該当するところがないか、チェックしてみて欲しい。

また、ご紹介している5つの心理パターンを理解することで、同じような負けを繰り返さなくなるはずだ。

2-1.プロスペクト理論

“プロスペクト理論”とは経済行動学の一つであり、人間は確実に取れる利益を優先してしまい、小さな損失でも回避しようとする考え方だ。

FX投資に置き換えてみると、含み損をしている状態にも関わらず、

心理的には(もう少し置いたら上がるだろう…)と考えてしまい、なかなか損切りができない状態のことを指す。

早期に損切りできれば小さな損失で抑えることができるが、目の前の損失を受け入れきれず、

ずるずると引っ張ってしまい最終的に大きな損失に繋がる場合が多い。

ここでの対策としてはプロスペクト理論に影響されないように、取引前に損切りラインを決めた上で、

実際にトレードするのが賢明だといえるだろう。

2-2.認知的不協和理論

“認知的不協和理論”は、イソップ物語の「すっぱい葡萄」でも取り上げられたとても有名な考え方だ。

特にFX初心者に多いことだが、自身が負け越しているにも関わらず、

何かと適当に根拠付けて自己正当化しようとする行為は、完全に認知的不協和理論が働いている証拠だといえる。

FX投資の世界では必ず勝ち負けには原因があり、複数の根拠が存在する。

いつまでも目の前の損失から目を背けて、何も学ばず分析しない状態でいたのでは、長期的に勝ち続けるのは不可能だろう。

時には自身を自己正当化することも大切だが、毎回同じようなことをやっていると、ただの負け惜しみにしかならない。

2-3.アンカリング効果

“アンカリング効果”とは、簡単にいったら先入観がもたらす誤解のようなものだ。

人間は最初に見た情報や、数字に影響を受けやすい。

FX投資で例えると、最初に見た経済ニュースや有名アナリストの予測的な数値に影響されやすく、

その後のトレードでも無意識に影響を受けている。

特にFX初心者は、その日最初に見た情報に影響を受けやすいため、必ず自身の頭で考える癖をつけるようにすることが大事になってくる。

2-4.サンクコスト効果

“サンクコスト効果”(コンコルド効果ともいう)とは、これまでの苦労をどうにかして取り返そうとする考え方だ。

例えば食べ放題のお店へいった際に、どうにかして支払った値段分は取り返そうと考え、

大量に席まで食べ物を運び、食べ残した経験はないだろうか。

支払ったお金を取り返そうとする心理が働き、無謀とも思える行為を行なってしまうのが、サンクコスト効果だといえる。

FX投資に置き換えると、いつまで経っても損切りができずにいる人や、ギャンブルトレードを行なっている人を指す。

損をどうにかして取り返そうとする心理こそが、ギャンブルトレードの心理そのものなので、

必ず取引を行う前にルールを作って取り組むことが大切だ。

2-5.直感的推論

“直感的推論”(もしくはヒューリスティック)とは、その名の通り物事を直感で判断してしまうことだ。

経験豊富な専業トレーダーに多いことだが、これまでの経験や知識だけで判断し、

目の前のトレードを深く考えずに直感だけで判断してしまう場合がある。

直感に頼ったトレードを行なってしまうと、裁量取引となってしまい、ギャンブルトレードといっても過言ではなくなる。

直感に頼ることも時には重要だが、FX投資では必ず一度考えて根拠を明確にした上で、取り組むことが重要である。

3.FX投資で大衆心理を活用する際の2つの注意点

大衆心理を活用したFXトレードを行う際には、主に2つの注意点が挙げられる。

大衆というものは総じて周りの意見や動きに流されやすいものであり、

そうした動きを意図的に作って利用しようとする、機関投資家の動きには十分に注意してもらいたい。

また、FX初心者でも分かるようなサインが出た時などは、注意信号なので慎重にトレードするように、意識しておくことが大切だ。

3-1.大衆心理を利用した機関投資家の操作

“機関投資家”とは、ヘッジファンドや銀行、生命保険会社等の金融機関の大口投資家のことを意味している。

機関投資家は扱っている金額が個人と比べて比較にならないため、相場に与える影響もかなり大きい。

そのため、巧みに大衆心理の裏を突くような売買を仕掛けてくることが多いのだ。

FX投資でいうところの”だまし”などが起こる原因の一つとしても数えられており、

大衆心理を活用した機関投資家の巧妙なテクニックなので、必ず覚えておいて欲しい。

3-2.FX初心者でも分かるようなサイン

大衆が注目しているポイントは、機関投資家も必ず見ているため、仕掛けてくることが大変多い。

明らかにトレンド相場で誰もがエントリーしている中で、いきなり暴落するなどの動きがあった場合に備えて、

しっかりと損切りも合わせて入れておくことが大切だ。

大衆心理は人間の本能的なものなので、知っていても意識的に制御するのは難しい。

そのため、その時々の感情に影響されないように、しっかりと前もって取引ルールを定めておくことが、重要になってくる。

4.FX投資の大衆心理が分かるおすすめインジケーター3選

FX投資で大衆心理を活用したチャートの”だまし“に引っかからないためにも、

導入しておきたいインジケーターを3つに厳選して、分かりやすくまとめてみた。

大衆心理が把握できるインジケーターを活用することで、優位性のあるトレードを行うことができるだろう。

4-1.移動平均線

出典:SBI FXトレード

“移動平均線”とは、特定の期間における終値の平均値の変化を、チャート上にグラフで表示したものを指している。

テクニカル指標の中でももっとも基本的なものであり、すでに多くのトレーダーが活用している。

移動平均線を参考にすることで、相場が上昇トレンドなのか下降トレンドなのかを、一目で判断できる訳だ。

「相場の流れは=大衆の流れ」といっても過言ではないため、FX投資を行うのであれば、是非とも活用したいインジケーターの一つだろう。

4-2.RCI

出典:トレードアカデミー

“RCI(Rank Correlation Index)”とは、日本語で順位相関指数と呼ばれており、

直近の価格がどれだけ上昇したか、もしくは下落したかを判断するための指標だ。

RCIを活用することで今買われすぎなのか、売られすぎなのかを一目で判断できる訳だ。

大衆心理が視覚的に分かりやすくなるため、相場の状況を俯瞰的に見る際には、かなり役立つインジケーターだといえる。

4-3.MACD

出典:高橋ダン Dan Takahashi

“MACD”(Moving Average Convergence Divergence)とは、短期間の移動平均線と中期間の移動平均線を活用することで、

買いと売りを判断できるインジケーターだ。

FXトレーダーの間では「マックディー」と呼ばれており、移動平均線を活用した応用手法の一つに数えられる。

また、RCI同様にMACDでもFX相場における大衆心理を、グラフで簡単に確認することができる代物だ。

5.FX投資の大衆心理を学ぶのに役立つおすすめ本2選

FX投資における大衆心理が体系的に学べるおすすめの本を、数多くの中から2冊に絞って分かりやすく紹介している。

本で学ぶことで確かな情報を手に入れられる他、何度も理解するまで読み返すことができる

また、その他の勉強法としては最近は、専業トレーダーのYouTube動画などもおすすめだろう。

5-1.大衆心理を利用して利益を上げる!維新流トレード術

出典:Amazon

本書ではFX投資の大衆心理における値動きに関して、初心者でも分かりやすく解説されている。

専業トレーダーは常に相場の心理状態を把握した上でトレードを行う訳だが、

本書ではトレードの本質に関して書かれているため、これからFXに取り組む全ての方に読んで欲しい本だ。

また、大衆心理というと難しい内容のように思えるが、本書は短時間で読むことができるのも、魅力の一つだろう。

5-2.1日3分!31日で覚える投資に必要な実践心理学31選

出典:Amazon

本書ではFX投資における、大衆心理に関する様々な理論を取り扱っている。

それぞれの理論を分かりやすく解説してあることはもちろんのこと、初心者でも実行しやすいようなアクションプランまで提案されている。

普段のトレードで自分の感情をコントロールすることができていない、と感じている人にはとてもおすすめの一冊だといえるだろう。

また、本の価格も250円ととてもリーズナブルなので、自己投資としてはコスパもかなり良いといえる。

まとめ|FX投資の大衆心理を理解して優位なトレードを行おう!

FX投資における大衆心理とは、相場に影響を与える一つの要因として解説してきた。

大衆心理に関する主な考え方として、代表的なものは5つ挙げられた。

  1. プロスペクト理論
  2. 認知的不協和理論
  3. アンカリング効果
  4. サンクコスト効果
  5. 直感的推論

最低でも上記の5つの考え方を理解しておくことで、FX投資では優位性の高いトレードを、行うことができるようになるだろう。

その他、ご紹介したおすすめのインジケーターなども積極的に活用して、普段のトレードに活かして欲しい。

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