FXのトレンド判断で必須の見極め方7選!分析方法・注意点をプロが伝授!

  • FXトレンド判断とはどういう意味?
  • FXトレンド判断の見極め方は?
  • FXトレンド判断を見極めるのに役立つインジケーターはどれ?

FX投資における”トレンド判断”とは、市場状況を判断するための一つの能力のことを意味している。

FX業界で名を馳せた著名投資家”ジョージ・ソロス”の言葉に、「トレンド・イズ・フレンド」という名言があるのをご存知だろうか。

分かりやすく説明すると、FXトレーダーが利益を上げるためには、トレンドに乗ることが重要であるということだ。

FX市場でトレンドに乗るためには、市場を見極める”トレンド判断能力”が必要になる。

そのため、FX投資で勝ち続けている専業トレーダーの多くは、トレンド判断能力がとても優れている、と言っても過言ではないだろう。

本記事ではFX投資におけるトレンド判断能力の重要性と、その見極め方やトレンド判断に役立つおすすめのインジケーターをご紹介している。

最後まで読んでいただくことで、FX投資におけるトレンド判断の見極め方を、理解することができるはずだ。

この記事の結論
  • FX投資におけるトレンド判断とは、市場状況を判断する能力のこと
  • FX相場のトレンドは、主に3つのタイプしかない
  • インジケーターを活用することで、効率的にトレンド判断できる

1.FXのトレンド判断とは市場状況を判断する能力のこと

FX投資では現在のチャート状況がどのような状態なのかを、判断する能力のことを”トレンド判断”という。

FX投資で継続的に勝ち続けるためには、相場を読むためのトレンド判断がとても重要になってくるため、

初心者であれば特に意識しておきたい重要なポイントだ。

専業トレーダーであれば大概相場を一目見ただけで、チャートが今上昇トレンドなのか、下降トレンドなのか、

またはレンジなのかを判断することができる。

一見するとトレンド判断は経験がものをいうように思えるが、実際にはインジケーターを上手く活用することで、

初心者でも簡単に見極めることが可能だ。

FXトレードで勝つためには、市場のトレンドを判断することがとても重要であるため、

初心者であればまずはトレンド判断能力を養うことからはじめて欲しい。

2.FX相場のトレンドにみられる主な3つの種類

FX相場では毎回トレンドが発生するようになっており、主に3つに分類される。

目の前の相場が今どのようなトレンドの種類であるかを、判断することができるようになれば、

順張りや逆張りといった手法が使えるようになる他、エントリーや決済のポイントなども絞れてくるだろう。

しかし、それぞれのトレンドの特徴を理解していないことには、その後の動きの予測が立てられないため、

まずは各トレンドの特徴をしっかりと把握しておくことが大切だ。

2-1.上昇トレンド

“上昇トレンド”は、為替レートが継続的に上昇していく流れを意味している。

FX相場では一旦トレンドに入ってしまうと、しばらくは特定のトレンドが継続される特徴を持っている。

そのため、上昇トレンドに入っている間は、レートが継続的に上昇していくことが予測できるため、

順張り手法などが有効的に活用できるはずだ。

ただし、どこでトレンド転換するかは分からないため、実際にトレードする際には慎重に取り組むように。

2-2.下降トレンド

“下降トレンド”とは、上昇トレンドとは反対に為替レートが、継続的に下降していく流れを意味している。

一旦、下降トレンドに入ってしまうと、その後は徐々に価格が下落していくことが予測できる訳だ。

FXトレーダーの多くは下降トレンドに入ったと確認できた時点で、その後の値下がりを期待して、売り注文を出す人が多い。

2-3.レンジ(保ち合い)

“レンジ(持ち合い)”とは、為替レートが上昇や下降などの動きを、見せない状態のことを指す。

ただし、レンジだからといって、全く為替レートが動いていない訳ではない。

レンジの場合は、短期的には上下しているものの、一定の水準を保ったまま上昇にも下降に振り切れていない状態になる。

そのため、レンジは他のトレンドとは異なりボラティリティが小さいため、中・長期的なトレードには向いていないといえるだろう。

多くのトレーダーはレンジに入ると、売買を一旦控える場合が多い。

しかし、短期トレードを行っている人であれば、レンジでも十分トレードが行える。

3.FXトレンド判断の主な7つの見極め方と転換シグナル

FX投資ではトレンド判断の見極め方として、大きく分けて7つの方法がある。

市場のトレンド判断ができるようになることで、その後の転換シグナルなども見つけられるようになるため、

まずはトレンドの見極め方をしっかりと理解して欲しい。

市場のトレンドはさまざまな要因で変化するため、その要因に関してどのようなものがあるのかを、学ぶことが大切だ。

3-1.市場がどのように動くかを調査する

FX市場では時間帯によってもチャートの動きが全く異なる。

そのため、1日のチャートの動きに関する特徴をしっかりと抑えた上で、トレードを行うことが大切になってくる訳だ。

例えばUSD/JPYの場合、トレンドが発生しやすい時間帯は0830から1000の間とされており、

その後、欧州マーケットが開場するまでの間はレンジになりやすい。

通貨ペアによっても異なるが、時間帯によるチャートの特徴を把握することで、トレンド判断が行いやすくなるので、是非とも試してみて欲しい。

3-2.ダウ理論をもとに市場のトレンドを分析する

“ダウ理論”とは、19世紀後半に米国の証券アナリスト「チャールズ・ダウ」氏が考案したテクニカル分析に関する理論のことだ。

ダウ理論には主に6つの基本法則が定められており、ダウ理論を活用することで市場のトレンドを分析し、判断することができる訳だ。

  1. 平均はすべての事象を織り込む
  2. トレンドには3種類ある
  3. 主要トレンドは3段階からなる
  4. 平均は相互に確認されなければならない
  5. トレンドは出来高でも確認されなければならない
  6. トレンドは明確な転換シグナルが発生するまで継続する

ダウ理論の6つの基本法則に関しては、FXトレーダーであれば必ず抑えておきたい考え方なので、この機会に覚えておいて欲しい。

3-3.移動平均線を活用する

移動平均線は、一定期間の平均価格を線で繋ぐことで、市場トレンドの方向性や強弱をみることができるテクニカル指標の一つだ。

FX投資の中では、最も一般的なトレンドを見極めるテクニカル分析手法であり、

トレーダーであれば必ず利用していると言っても過言ではないだろう。

また、トレンドの見極め方もとても簡単で、グラフが上向きか下向きか、またどのくらいの角度で上昇しているか下降しているかで強弱を判断できる。

比較的にFX初心者でも簡単に見極めることができるため、大変おすすめだ。

3-4.トレンドラインを活用する

トレンドラインとは、特定の期間のローソク足同士の安値を(もしくは高値)元に線を引きくことで、

今のトレンドが上昇か下降かもしくは、レンジなのかを見極めるためのテクニカル分析手法だ。

トレンドラインには主に2つの種類があり、ローソク足の安値を結んで書くラインを”サポートライン”、

逆にローソク足同士の高音を結んで書くラインを、”レジスタンスライン”という。

3-5.市場のボラティリティを理解する

FX市場に限らずどのような市場でも、チャートが直線的に動くことは決してない。

必ずチャートにはボラティリティが発生し、上昇か下降かどちらかに動いているはずだ。

そのため、市場のボラティリティを理解することで、現在のトレンドがどちらにどのくらいの強弱で動いているのかに関して、理解を深めることができる。

また、ボラティリティを図るインジケーターは多数存在するため、

実際にトレードを行う際には”移動平均線”や、”トレンドライン”と組み合わせて活用することで、

より明確にトレンド判断を行うことができるだろう。

3-6.ニュース情報を分析する

ニュース情報は、市場に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。

仮に世間で大変重要なニュースがあった場合、FX市場ではより長いトレンドが発生する可能性が高くなる。

また、重要なニュースの発表後でトレンドが終わった場合、その後の反転の動きも大変大きくなることが多い。

ニュースを分析して自身でしっかりと理解できれば良いが、ニュースの内容や市場に及ぼす影響などが予測できない場合は、

一定時間トレードを避けるのが無難だといえるだろう。

3-7.他のマーケットの動向を理解する

FX投資ではさまざまな要因がチャート形成に影響を与えているため、

他のマーケットの動向を理解することで、トレンド判断に役立つことも多い。

例えば”外国為替市場”であるロンドンやニューヨーク、パリ、香港、シドニーとさまざまな国でのやり取りもチャート形状に与える影響の一つだ。

その他、金利や株価との関係性などを理解しておくことも、FX市場でトレンド判断を行うためには、大切なことだといえるだろう。

4.FXのトレンド判断におすすめのインジケーター3選

FX投資におけるトレンド判断に役立つインジケーターを、3つに厳選してわかりやすくご紹介している。

インジケーターを上手く活用することで、経験が浅いFX初心者でもトレンド判断ができるようになるため、

普段のテクニカル分析の際に利用して欲しい。

4-1.MACD

出典:高橋ダン Dan Takahashi

“MACD(マックディー)”とは、「Moving Average Convergence/Divergence」の略語であり、移動平均線を活用した応用型のテクニカル手法だ。

具体的には2本の移動平均線を利用して、売りと買いの判断することができる。

MACDは数あるテクニカル指標の中でも、比較的に精度が高く、新規売買のシグナルとトレンドを判断する際にとても有効とされている。

4-2.ボリンジャーバンド

出典:高橋ダン Dan Takahashi

“ボリンジャーバンド”とは、統計学を元にしてFX市場を分析するためのテクニカル指標だ。

主な特徴としては特定相場のボラティリティを測定し、その後の価格変動範囲を予測することができる。

価格変動範囲を可視化し、予測することで今後のチャートのトレンド判断に、役立てることができるという訳だ。

また、ボリンジャーバンドはFX投資のみならず、株式投資の世界でも使われるインジケーターなので、知っておいた損はないだろう。

4-3.平均足

出典:【孫子のFXTV】戦わずして勝つ!

“平均足”とは、本来であれば1日分のデータを利用してローソク足を作成するところを、2日分のデータを用意て作成するものを指す。

平均足を活用することで陽線と陰線、ヒゲの3つの関係性からトレンド判断を行うことができる。

  • 陽線 + 上ヒゲ= 強い買いシグナル
  • 陰線 + 下ヒゲ= 強い売りシグナル
  • 陽線 + 下ヒゲ= 売りへの転換が迫っているシグナル
  • 陰線 + 上ヒゲ= 買いへの転換が迫っているシグナル

実際のトレードを行う際にも、一つの根拠として活用しやすいインジケーターなので、気になる人は一度触ってみて欲しい。

5.FXのトレンド判断を行う際の主な2つの注意点

FX投資におけるトレンド判断を行う際には、主に2つのことに注意する必要がある。

中でも、インジケーターを活用したトレンド判断では、予測通りにチャートが動かないことも多々あるため、

必ずエントリーする際に損切りポイントも決めておくことが大切だ。

そもそもFX投資の世界には”絶対”は存在しないため、常に万が一に備える必要があるといえるだろう。

5-1.トレンド判断のサインどおりに実際のチャートが動かない

トレンド判断を行う際には”だまし”の可能性もあるため、大きな損失を回避するためにも、必ず損切りのポイントを決めておく必要がある。

“だまし”とは、トレンド判断のサイン通りにチャートが動かないことを意味しており、

FX相場ではよくあることなので、必ず頭の片隅に入れておいて欲しい。

また、だましの後に何事もなかったように、元のトレンドに戻ることもあるため、その点も考慮した上でトレードすることが大切だ。

5-2.長い時間足から短い時間足のチャートを使ってトレンドを判断する

FX相場では基本的に長い時間足から短い時間足のチャートを活用して、トレンド判断を行うのが基本だ。

なぜなら、長期と短期のトレンドが一致しているトレンドは、継続しやすい特徴を持っているからに他ならない。

そのため、一つの時間足のチャートのみで判断せずに、必ず他の時間足もチェックした上で、トレンド判断するように心掛けて欲しい。

逆に、短い時間足ばかりを活用していると、長期のトレンドに逆らう不利なトレードになりかねないので、その点もしっかりと考慮しよう。

6.FXのトレンド判断に関するよくあるQ&A

FX投資におけるトレンド判断に関する多くの質問や悩みの中から、特に多かった内容だけに絞って、それぞれ分かりやすく回答をまとめてみた。

トレンド判断で困っている方で、該当するような質問がある場合は、参考にしてみて欲しい。

また、取り上げていない内容で悩んでいる人は、自身でしっかりと調べて納得した上で、実際のトレードに取り組むことをおすすめする。

トレンド判断を行う際におすすめテクニカル指標としては、移動平均線とトレンドラインが挙げられる。

特にFX初心者であれば移動平均線を活用するのが、一番分かりやすいだろう。

しかしながら、実際のトレードで活用する際には、一つのテクニカル指標だけだと確度が弱いため、

必ず他のテクニカル指標と合わせて参考にするようにして欲しい。

FXのトレンド判断におすすめのMT4インジケーターは、主に5つ挙げられる。

  • 移動平均線(Moving Average)
  • GMMA
  • ボリンジャーバンド(Bollinger Bands)
  • パラボリックSAR(Parabolic SAR)
  • 平均足(Heikin Ashi)

上記5つのインジケーターは主に”トレンド系“と呼ばれるものであり、トレンド判断時にはとても役立つため、

活用を検討してみてると良いだろう。

FX市場でトレンド判断する際には、必ず長期の時間足と短期の時間足とで見比べながら、トレンドを見極めるのが基本だといえる。

なぜなら、長期と短期で一致しているトレンドは継続性があり、より予測が立て易いからだ。

仮に、短期の時間足だけでトレンド判断してしまうと、長期的にみた場合にトレンドに逆らっている可能性があるといえる。

トレンドラインの強弱の判断は、トレーダーによっても異なることが多い

そのため、ボリンジャーバンドなどのボラティリティが測れるインジケーターと、組み合わせて分析するのが望ましいといえるだろう。

専業トレーダーの多くは、自身で各トレンドに対する基準を、しっかりと定めていることが多い。

そのため、見極め方に関しては人によって、若干違いあるといえる。

しかし、初心者には難しいため、“ダウ理論”によるトレンドの定義で、判断するのが望ましいといえる。

まとめ|FXトレンド判断の見極め方を覚えてトレードの勝率を上げよう!

FX投資におけるトレンド判断とは、市場状況を判断する能力のこと、として分かりやすく解説してきた。

また、トレンド判断の見極め方としては、主に7つ取り上げた。

  1. 市場がどのように動くかを調査する
  2. ダウ理論をもとに市場のトレンドを分析する
  3. 移動平均線を活用する
  4. トレンドラインを活用する
  5. 市場のボラティリティを理解する
  6. ニュース情報を分析する
  7. 他のマーケットの動向を理解する

それぞれFXトレードを行う上では、とても大切なことなので必ず抑えておいておいて欲しい。

その他、トレンド判断を行う上ではインジケーターの活用が不可欠なので、トレンドを見極める際には利用するように心がけよう。

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