FXで月利10%以上は詐欺!現実的に月利5%を目指せる2つの手法!

  • FXで月利10~20%を目指せるって本当?
  • 稼いでるFXトレーダーの月収ってどのぐらいなの?
  • 月利20%の実績を公開しているFX商材ってインチキなの?

この記事を開いているあなたは、「FXで現実的に稼げる月利ってどのぐらいなの?」と感じているはず。

結論から言うと、FXで稼ぐことの出来る月利は、平均して±1%~5%が現実的だ。

実際に日本のFXブローカーが公開しているトレーダーランキングでは、上位トレーダーの利益率がおおむね月利±10%以内に収まっていることがわかった。

それだけでなく、トレーダーとして最も確率の高い月利は、マイナスであることも判明した

したがって初心者がFXで稼ぐなら、現実的には平均月利1%をまずは目指すべきだろう。

加えてFXで月利を増やしたいのなら、ある2つの方法を使う事で確実に月利を増やすことが出来る。

しかし一方で現実的な月利を目指さずに、月利20%などと書かれた商材などを購入すれば、

  • 稼げると思ったのに稼げなかった
  • 高い商材費だけ無駄にしてリターンがゼロだった
  • 商材費だけでなく実際の取引も損失の方が大きかった

といった目に遭ってしまう。

間違った情報を掴まされお金を無駄にしてしまわないよう、FXで稼げる現実的な月利がなぜ1%程度なのか、どうすれば増やせるのかを理解しておこう。

この記事の結論
  • 月利20%の商材や自動売買は現実の相場では機能しない
  • 資産の多い人であっても月利はおおむね±10%程度に収まっている
  • 初心者は短中期売買を繰り返すか勝率の高い長期売買に大金をかけるべき

1. FXで毎月20%の月利を出し続けるのは不可能

FXの情報商材や自動売買などでよく見られるのは、

  • 月利20%の自動売買、数量限定で販売中
  • 月利10%を確実に継続する方法、教えます

などといった文言だ。

しかしこれらは全て言葉の綾が含まれているか、完全なる嘘だ。

なぜなら月利10%や月利20%を継続できるのなら、誰でもあっという間に世界一の富豪になれる。

仮に元手100万から月利20%を継続すれば、5年後には総資産が63億円になっている。

つまりそのような高い月利は、年に1回稼げても、毎月継続して稼ぎ続けることは不可能ということだ。

縦軸単位は(億円)

2. 月利20%の情報商材や自動売買を購入してはいけない5つの理由

月利10%や20%などと書かれている情報商材や自動売買を購入すべきでない理由は5つ。

これらの理由を理解していれば、相手がどれだけ口のうまい詐欺師だったとしても、騙されてしまう心配はない。

仮に取引実績を見せて信頼させようとしてきたとしても、その実績や履歴が信用に値するものでないと見抜けるだろう。

しかしこれらの理由を理解せずに、月利20%などの言葉を信用してしまえば、間違いなく後から後悔することになる。

「信用した自分がバカだった・・・」といった事態に陥らないよう、なぜそのような商材や自動売買を購入すべきではないのか、しっかりと理解しておこう。

2-1. フォワードテストが行われていないから

高い月利を狙えるような情報商材や自動売買を購入してはいけない理由の1つ目は、それらの自動売買で紹介されているロジックは、フォワードテストが行われていないからだ。

フォワードテストとは、ある手法を確立した後に数ヶ月から数年単位で実際にロジックをテストしてみる事を指す。

フォワードテストが行われているロジックであれば、手法が作られた後に行った取引実績を公開しているため、そのロジックを使えば再現性のある方法で稼げる可能性がある。

しかし多くの自動売買や情報商材はバックテスト(過去検証)しか行われていないため、実際の取引では役に立たない可能性が高い。

バックテストとは、過去のデータでロジックを検証することを指す。

バックテストによる実績は、過去の相場でなら稼げたかもしれない、ということしか証明できない。

そのため実際の取引においては、バックテストでの月利や利益とは全く異なった結果になる。

加えて過去のデータに基づいて作られたロジックならば、間違いなく実際の取引では役に立たなくなっているだろう。

過去のデータに基づいているロジックは、「過去のデータ」に対してのみ有効だ。

つまり過去とこれからの相場では全く状況が異なるため、過去では機能したロジックが機能しなくなる。

その結果過去検証やバックテストでは稼げたとされているロジックは、あなたが使ったときには役に立たなくなっているのだ。

つまりフォワードテストの行われていないロジックを使っても勝てるとは限らないため、フォワードテストが行われていない自動売買や情報商材は購入すべきではない。

加えてやたらとバックテストや過去検証のデータを示してくるようであれば、フォワードテストを知らない初心者をカモにしようとしている可能性が高いため、見た瞬間にブロックすべきだろう。

2-2. ロジックが過剰適合を起こしているから

月利20%などの情報商材や自動売買の購入を割けるべき理由の2つ目は、それらの商材や自動売買で使われているロジックは、過剰適合を起こしている可能性が高いからだ。

過剰適合とは、統計解析やデータ分析などの分野において、あるロジックが特定のデータに適合しすぎていることを指す。

FXにおける過剰適合とは、ロジックが過去の特定の相場でしか機能せず、未来の相場や他の通貨などでは一切機能しない事を意味する。

つまり過去の相場には完璧に適合しているが、その一部に適合しすぎたために、他部分には全く適合しなくなっているということだ。

自動売買のロジックが人の手ではなく、プログラムによって作られている場合、以下のような手順でロジックが作られる。

  1. コンピューターがデータを分析する
  2. 勝てるようなパターンをデータの中から見つける
  3. そのパターンを式として作り出す(ロジックにする)

したがって自動売買のロジックは人の手で作られていない場合、コンピューターが作り出した式をもとにしている。

そしてその式は過去のデータに対して、できるだけ利益が大きくなるように作られるため、過剰適合を起こしてしまうのだ。

過剰適合を起こしているロジックは、バックテストを行った際に間違いなく良い結果が出る。

そのため最初は毎月20%の利益を獲得できると思いこんでしまうが、実際は過去のデータに過剰適合させただけのロジックだ。

過去のデータに過剰適合させたロジックは、これからの相場では間違いなく機能しないため、バックテストと同じだけの利益を確保することは100%不可能だ。

つまり過剰適合を起こしているロジックは過去の相場でしか機能しないため、実際の取引で利益を出したいならば購入すべきではない。

以下のような特徴が見られるロジックは、過剰適合を起こしている可能性が高い。

  • 注文・決済の根拠が言語化されていない
  • AIやコンピューターによって作り出されている
  • 20%以上の月利を継続しているバックテストの結果がある

2-3. 公開実績をよく見せることが出来るから

月利の高い情報商材や自動売買を買ってはいけない理由の3つ目は、そのような自動売買や商材の取引実績は、いくらでもよく見せることが出来るからだ。

取引履歴や取引実績を公開していると、ついつい信頼できるように思えてしまう。

しかし実は、公開している実績や履歴は、デモ口座だったり取引期間が短くなっているというウラがあるのだ。

公開している取引履歴や取引実績は、デモ口座を利用した取引の履歴である可能性がある。

もしもデモで取引できる業者であれば、以下のような事が可能になる。

  1. 複数のデモ口座を開設
  2. 適当に色々取引をしてみる
  3. 一番成績の良かった口座を取引実績として公開

つまりデモ口座ならば損失を出しても問題がないため、ハイリスクハイリターンな取引が可能になる。

そして複数のハイリスクハイリターンな取引をした口座の中で、最もリターンが大きかったものを公開している可能性があるのだ。

もしも怪しいと思ったら、

  • 取引に使われている業者を調べる
  • デモ口座がないか調べる

という点に注意しよう。

実績として公開されている取引が3年未満の場合、大きな相場の変動やイレギュラーが起きた際に、大きな損失が生じてしまう可能性がある。

相場はいつも不規則に変化しているため、年に数回や数十年に一度のイレギュラーに対応できなければ、その一回ですべての資産がパァになるかもしれない。

加えて取引期間が短ければ、たまたまそのロジックがうまく機能した期間だけを切り取っている可能性もある。

そのため取引期間が3年未満のものは、絶対に信用してはいけない。

つまり公開実績や取引履歴は、いくらでもその商材や自動売買が有効であるかのように偽ることが出来るため、絶対に信用してはいけないといえる。

2-4. 稼げる手法なら人には教えていないから

高い月利を稼げるとしている情報商材や自動売買を買うべきではない理由の4つ目は、そのような手法があれば他人に教えていないからだ。

もし本当に稼げる方法があるのなら、他人に教えている時間など無駄でしかない。

仮に一人あたり100万円をもらっていたとしても、月利20%でFXをしていた方がずっと効率が良いのだ。

なぜならFXで月利20%を目指せるのなら、簡単に月収1億円を突破することができる。

以下のグラフでは、以下2つの収入を比較している。

  1. 100万円の商材を100人に売った場合(月収1億円)
  2. 100万円から毎月20%の月利を稼いだ場合(FXで月利20%)

(商材で稼ぐ場合とFXで稼ぐ場合:横軸は経過月数、縦軸は億円)

なんと48ヶ月(4年)が経過した時点で、毎月1億円を稼ぐ場合よりも、FXで月利20%を稼ぎ続ける場合のほうが月収が多くなるのだ。

稼ぎ方48ヶ月経過時点の月収48ヶ月経過時点の資産
情報商材(毎月1億)1億円48億円
FX(月利20%)9億円52.6億円

そのため月利20%を実現できる方法があるのなら、情報商材や自動売買などは売らずに、自分の手で取引をし続けているに決まっている。

加えて稼げる手法があればまたたく間に広がってしまい、大口の投資家などにその手法を利用され、その手法では勝てなくなってしまうだろう。

つまり情報商材や自動売買などを販売している時点で、FXでは大して稼げていないと言っているのと同じだ。

そのため月利20%などをうたって販売している自動売買や商材では絶対に稼ぐことはできないため、購入してはいけない。

2-5. 月利20%で運用出来る人は世界一の資産家になっているはずだから

月利20%などの商材を購入してはいけない理由の最後は、月利20%で運用できれば世界一の資産家になっているはずだからだ。

さらにもう10年間続ければ、総資産は8垓(がい)4000京(けい)円に到達するため、

  • 全世界の国債を返済する
  • 全世界の全企業を買収して世界征服を果たす
  • 日経平均株価を123万円まで押し上げて世界経済を混乱させる
  • 全世界総人口70億人1人ずつに1,200万円を配って貧困をなくす
  • ユニクロを1株あたり243万円の世界一時価総額の高い企業にする

などと言ったことが可能になる。

つまり月利20%での運用ができるのなら、世界一の資産家になり世界を支配者しているはずだ。

そのような人間はわざわざ情報商材を売ったり自動売買を販売したりするわけがないので、月利20%などをうたっている商品は購入してはいけない。

3. 稼いでいるFXトレーダーの月利は高くても10%

稼いでいるFXトレーダーの月利は、高くても10%が妥当だ。

大手FXブローカーのYJFXやヒロセ通商などでは、実際にトレーダーたちの月利が公開されている。

それらのブローカーから公開されているトレーダーランキング上位者の月利を見てみると、多くが月利±10%程度に収まっている。

まれに10%を越えているトレーダーもいるが、その前月や前々月は±10%の間に収まっている。

加えて月利がマイナスになっているトレーダーも多く見られるため、どれだけ資産の多い稼いでいるトレーダーであっても、月利10%や20%といった数値を毎月継続するのは不可能だと言えるだろう。

このグラフは横軸が収益率、縦軸が発生確率(その月利を稼げる確率)だ。

このグラフから分かる通り、月利20%を叩き出しているトレーダーはほとんどおらず、さらに月利20%を稼げたとしても1ヶ月間のみ、とったケースが99%だ。

したがって月利20%以上という条件に加えて、それを何ヶ月も継続させるというのは100%不可能だ。

なによりも最も確率の高い月利はマイナスのため、マイナスを出さないことが最重要事項だと言える。

ただし資産の少ないトレーダーや一部のトレーダーは、-20%などの損失が出ることを前提に、ハイリスクハイリターンな取引を行っていることもあるようだ。

FXトレーダー総資産ランキング|ファイナンススタジアム

リアルトレードランキング

4. FX初心者が現実的に目指せる月利は高くても1~5%程度

もしもあなたが初心者ならば、現実的に目指せる最も高い平均月利は1~5%程度だと思っておくとよいだろう。

なぜなら現在公開されているトレーダーランキングを見ると、多くのトレーダーが±10%以内に収まっており、月利1%~5%が稼いでいるトレーダーの平均月利、という印象だからだ。
FXトレーダー総資産ランキング|ファイナンススタジアム
リアルトレードランキング

つまりどれだけ資産の多いトレーダーであったとしても、日本国内ではだいたい10%以下の月利が多く、確率としてはマイナス1~5%あたりが最も高い。

そのため月利が、マイナスならば並、1%程度なら優、5%までいけば一流トレーダーだと言えるだろう。

またこれは上位のトレーダーが叩き出している数値であって、初心者が目指すにはかなり厳しい数値であるため、初心者が現実的に目指せる月利としては、毎月平均1~2%前後、まれに10%の月があるかもしれない、程度に考えておくとよいだろう。

5. FXの月利を上げるにはレンジブレイクを狙う!

FXで月利を上げるためにやるべきことは、レンジブレイクを狙うことだ。

レンジブレイクとは、価格が高値と安値で作られたレンジを越えた、もしくは割った時にエントリーする手法のこと。

高値や安値には多くの損切り注文や新規注文が殺到するため、その価格を超えたり割ったりすると、大きく価格が動きトレンドが発生する。

ただし注文の量が少ないと大口投資家によってダマシとなってしまうこともある。

なぜなら2つのうちどちらかのレンジブレイクを行えば、かなりの確率で月利を増やせるからだ。

そのためこれら2パターンを確認しておこう。

パターン1:少額で短期・中期のレンジブレイクを狙う場合

短・中期間に形成されたレンジラインは、注文数量が少なく、レンジブレイクが起きてもダマシになりやすい。

つまり短・中期間で形成されたレンジブレイクは勝率が低いため、少額にして取引回数を増やさなければならないのだ。

また1分足や5分足で形成されたレンジラインは使い物にならないため、短期でも15分足、中期ならば1時間足を目安にレンジを考えるとよいだろう。

たとえ勝率が50%強であったとしても、少額で複数回取引をしてけばコツコツと利益を稼げるはずだ。

パターン2:大金で長期のレンジブレイクに大金を回す場合

長期間で形成されたレンジラインは大口投資家による大量の注文が発注されているため、一度ブレイクを起こすとダマシになることなくトレンドが継続する。

したがって長期のレンジブレイクが起きた直後にエントリーすれば、価格の逆行が起きにくいため利益が伸び続ける。

そのため長期のレンジブレイクは勝率が高く、大きな金額をかけたとしても問題がないのだ。

ただし長期で形成されたレンジがブレイクを起こすタイミングは限られているため、取引回数は少なくなる。

つまり勝率高めの長期レンジブレイクを狙うなら、回数が少ない分大きな額を動かさないと月利は増やせない。

つまりどちらかの方法でレンジブレイクを狙えば、着実に利益は増えていくため、月利を増やしたいのならレンジブレイクを狙うとよいだろう。

まとめ|正攻法でまずは年平均月利1%を目指す

もしもあなたがFXの月利を増やしたいと考えているのなら、まずは確実に年平均月利1%を目標に取り組んでみよう。

FXトレーダーといえば一回の取引で数十万円や数百万円を稼いでいるイメージがあるかもしれないが、それと同じぐらいの損失を出してしまっているのが現実だ。

現に資産上位のトレーダーは、多くが10%以下の月利しか出せておらず、さらに10%以上の月利は数ヶ月に一度だけ、という状態だ。

加えてこのグラフから分かる通り、月利がマイナスになる確率こそが最も高い。

そのためまずは、とにかく月利がマイナスになららないよう気をつけるべきだろう。

したがって月利がマイナスでなければトレーダーとしては成功、月利1%も獲得できれば万々歳と言える。

もしも手間ひまをかけずに月利1%を目指したいというのであれば、自動売買もオススメだ。

同じ月利1%であったとしても、自動売買が稼いだ月利1%ならば完全なる不労所得となるため、裁量トレードの月利1%とは重みが異なる。

自動売買ならばトライオートFXがオススメだ。

トライオートFXならば任意にトレードロジックを設定できるため、

  • コツコツを複数回
  • ドカンを一発

といったどちらの手法にも対応している。

ぜひ自動売買と2つの手法を活用して、堅実に月利1%を毎月達成できるようにしよう。

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