【裏技】FXライントレードで勝つ!現役トレーダーがコツを初心者向けに直伝

  • FX初心者だけどライントレードって勝てるの?
  • やってみたいけどコツとかはある?
  • 利確や損切りのタイミングが知りたい…

この記事を見つけたあなたは、FX初心者で「ライントレード」を使ってトレードを始めたいと思っているのでは。

確かにライントレードは初心者でも使いやすく、FXトレード入門編だと言える手法だ。

ただし、ライントレードはシンプルで簡単な手法ではあるが、コツを掴んでいないと勝つのは難しい手法とも言える。

そのため、この記事では現役トレーダーの私が、今まで実践してきたライントレードのやり方を、初心者にもわかりやすく解説する。

この記事を最後まで読めば、ライントレードのコツを掴み、初心者でもFXトレードで勝つ一歩目を踏み出せるだろう。

もくじ

1. ライントレードとは相場の動きに線を引く分析方法

ライントレードとは、今の為替相場が上昇トレンド・下降トレンド・レンジ相場なのかを見極めるために線を引くトレード方法だ。

相場の動きに合わせて引いた線を目安に、

  • 買いエントリーが有利なのか
  • 売りエントリーが有利なのか

を判断して行うトレードのことである。

ライントレードでは、基本的にトレーダー自身で引いた線を頼りにトレードすることになるため、裁量要素の強い手法になる。

FXで長期的に勝つためには裁量トレードのスキルは必須なので、その代表格であるライントレードは絶対に不可欠。

まさに、ライントレードを制する者はFXを制すると言っても過言ではないため、FX初心者ならまず始めに習得しておくべきスキルだ。

1-2. ライントレードは相場の流れを視覚的に読めることがメリット

ライントレードの最大のメリットは、

  • 買い優勢なのか
  • 売り優勢なのか
  • レンジ相場なのか
  • トレンドが転換したのか

という、相場を感覚的にではなく、視覚的かつ客観的に分析できることだ。

相場の流れを見極められるだけでも、相場の流れに逆らわないトレードができるので勝率はグンと上がるため、ライントレードの威力は絶大だ。

1-3. ライントレードはダマシのリスクがあることが唯一のデメリット

ライントレードの威力が絶大かつ皆が使っている手法だ。

そのため大衆心理を逆手にとって、大口投資家たちによる「ダマシ」という術中にハマってしまうリスクがある。

「ダマシ」とは大口投資形による大量の売り注文により相場が揺らぐ現象だ。

  1. 大口投資家が大量の売り注文を入れる
  2. 相場が一瞬大きく揺らぐ
  3. 一般投資家が損切りに追い込まれる
  4. しかし、その後は相場は元のレートに戻る

このようにライントレードでは、大口投資家の注文によって発生する「ダマシ」によって、被害を受けるリスクがあり、

「ライントレードでは勝てない…」と諦め、他の手法を求めては負けを繰り替えす人もたくさんいる。

あくまでもFXは確率の世界であるため、ライントレードはダマシに遭うリスクはあるが、勝てる確率の方が圧倒的に高い

そのため、ライントレードでは「ダマシ」に屈しない姿勢が大切だ。

ライントレードは、世界中のトレーダーが最も多く使っている手法であり、言い換えればライントレードはFXの中でも勝率が高い手法であることを意味している。

多くのトレーダーが使っている手法だからこそ、ライントレードでのラインは大衆心理に従って、買い・売りのチャンスを冷静に見極めることが可能だ。

2. ライントレードで必要な3つの線の引き方・見方

  1. トレンドライントレード
  2. チャネルライントレード
  3. レジスタンスライン・サポートライン(水平線)トレード

ライントレードでは主に3種類の線の引き方がある。

3つの線はまず初心者が覚えるべき部分なので、ラインの見方も含めて詳しく説明する。

2-1. トレンドラインの引き方と見方

トレンドラインの引き方は、ライントレードの中でも最もシンプル。

上昇トレンドのトレンドラインの場合は、チャートを見て最安値と目立つ安値の2点を結ぶだけだ。

最安値はチャートをパッと見たときに最も安い値の所なので、初心者でもすぐ見つけられる。

一方『目立つ安値』は、必ず最安値の右側にある安値の中から選ぶ必要がある。

選び方のコツとしては、最安値と目立つ安値をつないでトレンドラインを引いたときに、ラインの下にローソク足が大きくはみ出してないかを確認することだ。

もしローソク足が大きくはみ出しているようであれば、それは正しいラインとは言えないため、他の目立つ安値で引き直さなければならない。

ロウソク足の実体がラインを大きくはみ出していなければOKである。

ロウソク足のヒゲが飛び出しているのは、初級レベルであれば無視しておいてよい。

ロウソク足の実体が、トレンドラインの上に位置しており、ラインから大きくはみ出していないこと、これを条件として目立つ安値を見つけてラインを引いてほしい。

下降トレンドのトレンドラインはこの逆で、チャートでの最高値と次に目立つ高値2点をラインで結ぶだけだ。

トレンドラインの応用編としては、上昇トレンドを例に挙げるが、まずチャート上で目立つ安値を見つける。

次に、別の目立つ安値を見つける。そして、この2点をラインで引く、という方法もある。

最安値よりも、より直近のデータを元にトレンドラインを引けるので、新鮮な情報を元にトレードできるというメリットがある。

トレンドラインの見方としては、トレンドラインより上にレートがある限りは、上昇トレンドが続いている、という判断をする。

例えば5分足を使っていたとして、瞬間的にトレンドラインを下回ったとしても、その5分足が確定された段階、つまりロウソク足の実体がトレンドラインの上に位置してさえいれば、上昇トレンド継続と判断できる。

下降トレンドの場合はその逆で、トレンドラインより下にレートがある限りは下降トレンド継続と見る。

2-2. チャネルラインの引き方と見方

チャネルラインは、トレンドラインを引いた後に引けるラインである。

トレンドラインの場合はトレンドの方向性やトレンドの継続しているかを確認することが主な役割だが、

チャネルラインの場合は、トレンドの方向感だけでなく「どの辺りで相場が反転するのか」「どの辺りで利益確定をした方がよいのか」その転換点を見つけやすい点がメリットだ

トレンド相場勝負ではなく、レンジ相場で戦いたい(逆張り志向)トレーダーにも非常に向いている。

チャネルラインの引き方

チャネルラインの引き方だが、上昇トレンドの場合、まずトレンドラインを引き、目立つ高値を見つける。

そして、その目立つ高値に合わせる形で、平行な線を引く。

これで出来上がった2本の平行したラインがチャネルラインだ。

チャネルラインの見方

下降トレンドの場合は、目立つ安値を見つけ、同様に平行な線を引く。

チャネルラインの見方は、チャネルラインが右肩上がりであれば上昇トレンド継続と判断すると同時に、

チャネルラインの上のほうのラインにレートが近づいてきたら、いったん戻り売りが入る可能性が高いことを示唆している。

また、傾きが大きければトレンドが非常に強いと見ることができるし、傾きが緩やか(水平に近い状態)であれば、レンジ相場という判断ができる。

つまり、「トレンドの強さ」や「レンジに近いかどうか」といった相場の環境認識として活用できることがチャネルラインの強みだ。

また、チャネルラインの幅が狭ければ、あまり活発な値動きになっていない(ボラティリティが小さい)と見ることもできる。

基本的には、このチャネルラインの値幅の中でレートが上下するという見方をする。

応用編

チャネルラインの応用編としては、チャネルラインのど真ん中にもう1本線を引き、平行な線を3本に揃える。

この真ん中の線を、今売買するべきかどうかの目安として利用するのだ。

例えば上昇トレンドの場合、このど真ん中の線より上にレートが位置しているとすると、もうだいぶ上限に近づきつつある(そこからの伸びしろが小さい)ので、いくら上昇トレンド中とは言え、いったん買いエントリーは控えておくというやり方だ。

上昇トレンド中にも必ず戻り売り(買いエントリーした人たちの利益確定=売りが入る、ということ)があるからだ。

逆に、上昇トレンド中なのに、このど真ん中の線よりレートが下に位置していれば、買いエントリーのチャンスである。

まだこれから上がっていく、伸びしろが大きいからだ。良い押し目買いのポイントになっていることが多いので、積極的に買いエントリーしていくべき局面と言える。

2-3. サポートライン・レジスタンスラインの引き方と見方

サポートライン・レジスタンスライン(水平線)の引き方は、ライントレードのラインの中でも個人差が最も出やすい。

引き方が何パターンもあるからだ。1つ目は、最高値と最安値のところに、水平線を引く方法だ。

最高値、最安値は、今、目の前のチャート画面だけで判断してよい。

これなら、迷うことなく自動的に引けるはずだ。2つ目の方法は、キリのよい価格の所に水平線を引く方法だ。

これは、例えばドル円であれば、109円00銭や109円50銭などのように、下2ケタでキリがよいかどうかを判断するということだ。

キリのよいレートとしては、『00』『50』が代表的で、次に『20』『80』である。この4種類で十分だ。

3つ目の方法は、チャート画面(ロウソク足の表示)を小さめにして、少し長いスパンで見たときに、度々弾き返されているポイントを見つけ、そこに水平線を引く、という方法だ。

ただ、これには慣れが必要であり、本当に弾き返されているのかどうかを見極めるのは鍛練が必要なので、まず初心者の場合は、1つ目か2つ目の、シンプルな方法をおススメする。

見方としては、例えば最高値の所に引いた水平線を越えずにレートが下回っていれば、その水平線はレジスタンスライン(抵抗線)として機能していると判断できる。

その逆に、その水平線をレートが越えてきた場合には、もはやレジスタンスラインとしては機能していない状態となり、その水平線は今度はサポートラインに転換したことを意味する。

また、最安値の所に引いた水平線を越えずにレートが上回っている段階ではサポートライン(支持線)として機能していると判断できるし、レートがそこを下回ってきたならば、そのサポートラインは、今度はレジスタンスラインに役割が変わったと見ることができる。

サポートライン、レジスタンスラインを意識しておくことで、レンジ相場が好きなトレーダーであれば、そこから逆張りを仕掛けることができるし、逆に大きなトレンド相場を狙っていこうとしているトレーダーであれば、サポートライン・レジスタンスラインを突破した所から大きく仕掛けることができる。

4. ライントレードでのエントリータイミング

  • トレンドラインのエントリータイミング
  • チャネルラインのエントリータイミング
  • サポートライン・レジスタンスラインのエントリータイミング

4-1. トレンドライントレードでのエントリータイミング

トレンドラインを使ってトレードをする際のエントリータイミングは、上昇トレンドの場合は、以下の3つの条件がクリアできた所で買いエントリーする。

  1. レートが上昇トレンドラインの上で推移している。
  2. レートが上昇トレンドライン付近まで下落してきている。
  3. 『陽線』で反発。

③の陽線は、未確定の時はまだ待つ必要がある。実体として完全に確定した所で、すぐにエントリーする。

 下降トレンドの場合は下の3つが条件が重なった段階で売りエントリーをする。

  1. レートが下降トレンドラインの下で推移している。
  2. レートが下落トレンドライン付近まで上昇してきている。
  3. 『陰線』で反発。

これも③は、陰線が確定するまで待つ。

この手法は、いわゆる『押し目買い』『戻り売り』の鉄板パターンであり、ぜひともマスターして頂きたい。買いでも売りでも、③が肝である。

反発が確定・確認できた所で、多くのトレーダーが『今、反発したので、トレンド方向へエントリーだ』という考えと行動を起こす。

そうすることで、レートは一気にまたトレンド方向へ突き進みやすくなるのだ。

さらに、そうなってくると、例えば上昇トレンドの中で売りで入ってしまっていたトレーダーは、自分のエントリー方向からまた逆行し始めた、と諦め、耐え切れずに損切りをし始める。

売りの損切りなので、買い決済、ということになる。そうすると、さらに買い勢力は勢いを増す。

FXにおいて、最も値動きが大きくなるのは、損切りを巻き込んだときなのだ。このタイミングに乗じて、勝ち組に相乗りさせてもらう、というわけだ。

4-2. チャネルライントレードでのエントリータイミング

チャネルライントレードでのエントリータイミングも、大枠の考え方はトレンドラインと同じだ。買いエントリーするための条件は2つ。

  1. チャネルラインの下の方のライン付近まで下落してきている。
  2. 陽線で反発。

つまり、『おおよそ、このぐらいの値幅の中でレートが動くだろう』という値幅設定を意味するチャネルラインの特性を活かし、下限ぎりぎりぐらいまでレートが下がってきて、そこから陽線が出て反発したところで、『また上限近くまで上昇していく確率が高い』という考え方のもとで買いエントリーをしている。

チャネルライントレードでの売りエントリー条件も2つ。

  1. チャネルラインの上の方のライン付近まで上昇してきている。
  2. 陰線で反発。

チャネルライントレードの場合、もし傾きがない場合(つまりレンジ相場と推定できる場合)でも、同様の考え方でエントリーできる。

4-3. サポートライン・レジスタンスライン(水平線)トレードでのエントリータイミング

サポートライン(支持線)を使った場合、その水平ラインを下回ったところで売りエントリーで入り、レジスタンスライン(抵抗線)を上回ったところで買いエントリーを入れる。

・・・これはごく基本的な考え方、一般論である。当サイトではもう一歩踏み込んで解説しておく。

サポートライン(支持線)をレートが割り込んできても、いったんは『待つ』のだ。

エントリーしたい、はやる気持ちを抑え、高みの見物をするのだ。

というのが、5~10pips程度、下回ってきたからと言って、まだ『本当にサポートラインを突破したかどうか』は判断できない。

いわゆる、ダマシである。少しだけ割り込んだとしても、それは誤差の範囲であり、サポートラインを完全に突破したという論拠としては弱い。

もっと確率の高いポイントがあるので、そこまで待つのだ。

1度サポートラインを下回ったレートは、もう1度、そのサポートライン付近まで戻ってくることが多い、という特徴を利用する。

サポートラインを少し割り込んだ辺りで売り勢力が、『まだ本当にサポートラインを割り込んだのか微妙なので、いったん利益確定して逃げておこう』と考え、売りの利益確定=買い決済をしてくるのだ。

大口投資家の中には、本当に突破したか確認するために『打診(確認)売り』するトレーダーもいる。こういった背景のもとで、いったんはサポートライン付近に戻る可能性が高いのだ。

そして、サポートラインに戻ってきて、陰線で反発してまた下がり始めた所で、ようやく売りエントリーをするのだ。こうすると、格段に勝率が上がる。

買い勢力・売り勢力の攻防戦に決着がついた後だからだ。大勢が決した後で、勝ち組の後ろに付いていくのだ。

レジスタンスライン(抵抗線)を使った場合は、上記の逆を行えばよい。

レジスタンスラインを1度上回ってもまだ買いエントリーせず、1度、レジスタンスライン付近にまでレートが戻ってきて、陽線で反発してまた上昇し始めた所で買いエントリーをすれば勝率は格段に上がる。

5. ライントレードでの利確・損切りタイミング

  • トレンドライントレードでの利確・損切りタイミング
  • チャネルライントレードでの利確・損切りタイミング
  • サポートライン・レジスタンスライン(水平線)トレードでの利確・損切りタイミング

5-1. トレンドライントレードでの利確・損切りタイミング

トレンドラインでの利確・損切りのタイミングだが、そもそも、不慣れなうちは、利確:損切り=1:1という値幅で設定し、あらかじめ指値(利確)・損切り(逆指値)を入れてしまっておくのがよい。

理由は2つある。

1つ目の理由は初心者のときは、『利益を早めに確定してしまい、損切りはなかなかできない』という傾向があるからだ。

これは最悪のパターンであるが、初心者が陥りやすい現象なのだ。

人間心理的に、どうしても、目の前で出ている利益は早く確定させて勝ち逃げしたくなるし、損失が膨らんでいる状態では逆に、そこからまた戻ることを期待して引っ張ってしまいがちになる。

その気持ちはよく分かるが、FXはそんなに甘くない。

その心理を巧みに突いて、大口投資家たちは揺さぶりをかけ、初心者をカモにしてくるのだ。

それに引っかからないために、あらかじめ指値と逆指値を入れてしまっておき、あとは触らない。これに尽きる。

2つ目の理由は、利確:損切り=1:1にしておくことで、勝率が55%以上確保できているかどうかの検証がしやすくなるからである。

利確:損切り=1:1であれば、スプレッドの若干の不利な面を鑑みても、トータルの勝率が55%を越えていれば、長く続ければ必ず勝てるのだ。

FXでは、1回1回の取引結果はどうでもよく、トータルで統計的に、利益を残せるかどうかだけが、重要なのだ。このことを、ぜひ忘れないで頂きたい。

重要なので、もう1度言う。1回1回の取引は、気にしなくていい、100回やったときのトータル勝率がどうか、だけ検証すればよい。

さて、トレンドラインでの利確、損切りのタイミングだが、あえて決め打ちをしてしまう。具体的には、ドル円・ユーロ円・ユーロドルなら、『20pips』だ。

この値幅で、エントリーと同時に指値・逆指値(利確・損切り)を入れてしまう。

これだけで、あとは待つだけだ。20pipsというのは、トレンドが本当にその方向に出ているならば、軽く突破できる値幅だからだ。

逆に言えば、20pipsも逆行すれば、そのトレンド自体が、もはや崩れてしまっている可能性も出てくる。そういう取引は潔く損切りし、早々に撤退するべきなのだ。

あくまで、トータルで勝つために。敗因を分析する必要はない、肝心なのは、『ちゃんとルール通りに取引できたかどうか』だけである。 

5-2. チャネルライントレードでの利確・損切りタイミング

チャネルライントレードにおける利確・損切りのタイミングは、非常にシンプルで、チャネルのラインにレートが触れたときだ。ロウソク足の実体ではなく、ヒゲでよい。

一瞬でも触れた、もしくは触れる直前の所で、利益確定もしくは損切りをする。躊躇してはいけない。トレンドライントレードと同様に、おおよその指値・逆指値(ラインの線上に該当するレート)は入れておく。

チャネルライントレードの本質としては、2本のラインの中でレートが上下する、という前提の中で取引を組み立てているので、そのラインを突破した時点で、もはやロジックは崩れており、長居する必要はない。

むしろ、ラインに触れた時点で利確し、ラインに触れたら今度は逆方向へのエントリーに切り替えるタイミングとして捉えてよい。

5-3. サポートライン・レジスタンスライン(水平線)トレードでの利確・損切りタイミング

サポートライン・レジスタンスライン(水平線)トレードでの利確・損切りのタイミングは、初心者の時は、割り切って『20pips』という値幅で設定してしまう。

利確も損切りも20pips。これが一番成功しやすい。

サポートライン・レジスタンスラインというのは、世界中のトレーダーに注目されやすいポイントであり、逆に言えば、それだけ、大口投資家たちが揺さぶりをかけてくるポイントでもある。

しかし、20pipsを越えるような揺さぶりは、ドル円・ユーロ円・ユーロドルであれば、そうそうない(損切りには引っ掛からない)。

そもそも、初心者が自分なりの分析をした所で、彼らに勝てるわけがない。

具体例を1つ紹介する。

  1. レートが急上昇し、一瞬、レジスタンスラインを突破した。
  2. と思ったら、すぐにまたレートが下がり、レジスタンスラインを割り込む
  3. 初心者はレジスタンスラインを突破したと思って買いエントリーしていたが、レートが下がってきたので慌てて買いの損切りをして、売りで入り直す
  4. もう1度レート上昇し、レジスタンスラインを突破する
  5. 初心者は慌てて売りを損切りし、再び買いで入り直す
  6. レートが再び急降下し、結局はレジスタンスラインは突破し切れなかった
  7. 初心者は、涙ながらに再び買いエントリーの損切りをする。

気づいたときには、資金の大半を使い果たしてしまった…というのは、初心者には本当によくある展開なのだ。

皆さんには、そうなって欲しくない。

なので、1度エントリーしたら、20pips上下するまでは、『じっと結果を待つ』のだ。

結果的には、これが1番勝てる方法なのだ。

6. ライントレードでの注意点4つ

  1. ダマシに注意する
  2. エントリー段階で、利確・損切りを決めておく
  3. 1つ1つのトレードに一喜一憂しない
  4. ライントレード日記をつける

6-1. ダマシに注意する

ライントレードをする上で、『ダマシ』は避けては通れない。

というより、レベルアップするためには、初心者の頃は、ライントレードをしながら、たくさんダマされる経験も必要だ。そうすることで、どういう時にダマシが多いか、自ずと分かってくる。

とは言え、ライントレードにおいて少しでもダマシに遭いにくくする方法を説明しておく。

まず、エントリーの基準、タイミングを計るのには5分足を使う。

これは、ライントレードでのエントリーの最終判断として使う。例えば、トレンドライントレードであれば、トレンドラインに触れて陽線で反発した、という論拠の確認のために、5分足を使う、ということだ。

しかし、これだけではダマシ連発になる。そこで、大きな時間足を1つ使って、本当にその方向性でトレンドが進んでいるのかを確認するのだ。

これを行うだけでも、随分とダマシを減らすことができる。具体的には、1時間足を使うのだ。

1時間足というものは、スキャルピングであってもデイトレードであってもスイングトレードであっても、世界中のトレーダーが使っている可能性が最も高い時間足であり、使われているということは、それだけ意識されやすい(機能しやすい)ということを意味している。

1時間足は万能型の時間足と言うこともできる。

さて、この1時間足で、どう判断するかだが、ライントレード初心者向けには、1時間足でもトレンドラインを引く、という方法をススメする。

そして、その1時間足で、レートがトレンドラインより上にあれば、目線は買いに置く。逆に、1時間足でトレンドラインより下にレートがあるようであれば、目線は売りに置く。

1時間足は、買いか売りかの、あくまで、トレードの方向感を決定するだけにすぎない。そして、1時間足で買い判断とした場合に、5分足で買いエントリー条件を満たした時にだけ、買いでエントリーするのだ。

では、1時間足で買い判断とした場合に、5分足で売りエントリー条件を満たしたときにはどうするのか?答えは、見送り、である。

上位足と下位足で方向感が違っている場合は、ダマシであったり、結局もみ合いになってレンジ相場が続いたり、という展開になることが多く、これはライントレーダーにとって有利な状態にあるとは言えない。

確定的なトレンドに乗じて勝ち組にくっ付いていき、おこぼれを頂戴する、これこそが、初心者がFXで生き残る道であり、不確定な要素が多い局面には手を出してはならないのだ。

このライントレード手法でやっても、負けるときは必ずある。レートは一方的に上がり続けることはなく、必ず利益確定の戻り売りが入る。そこで買いで入っていて、負けたとしよう。

それでも、全く気にせず、レートが1時間足トレンドラインの上にある限りは、ただひたすら買いエントリーで戦うのだ。ここが肝である。

局所的に少々負けようが、長期的には余りある利益を享受できる、それこそがトレンドラインの真骨頂であり、その強みを放棄してはならない。トレンドラインで買い判断なら、ひたすら徹底的に買い1本で勝負するのだ。

6-2. エントリー段階で、利確・損切りを決めておく

先ほども各ライントレードのエントリータイミングの所で説明したが、ライントレードをする際には、必ず指値、逆指値を入れておく必要がある。

いつどこで相場が急変するか分からない、というのもあるが、何よりも、ズルズルと損切りをせずに損失を膨らませることを防ぐことができる、というメリットが大きい。

損切りを避けようとせず、負けは負けとして冷静に受け止め、また次のトレードに備える。資金さえ守れていれば、トレードはいくらでもできる。FXはこの繰り返しなのだ。

また、ライントレードの場合、特にトレンドライントレードと、サポートライン・レジスタンスライン(水平線)トレードにおいては、どこまで利益が伸びるかが分からない、という側面がある。

これは中級レベルになってくると、ある程度の見当はついてくるのだが、初心者ではそれは無理である。

なので、20pipsという割り切った値幅で、きっちりと利益を確保していく、そして、もし、レートが利確後にさらに伸びたとしても、悔しがってはいけない。

その逆、つまり、20pipsで利益確定していたから勝ち逃げできた、というパターンも往々にして出てくるからだ。

6-3. 1つ1つのトレードに一喜一憂しない(感情はFXの最大の敵)

ここまで書いてきた通りのことを淡々とこなし、経験を積めば、100戦で55勝45敗~63勝37敗の間ぐらいの勝率を維持できる。利確:損切り=1:1の比率でこの勝率であるから、やればやるだけ、少しずつ利益が増えていく。

『感情を入れずに、淡々と』こなすことが、何より重要なのだ。1つ1つの取引の結果を、気にしてはならない。気にしなければならないのは、自分がルール通りに取引をできたかどうか、その点だけである。

一喜一憂するといった感情はFXの大敵なのだ。

感情的になった時に、その心の隙間に大口投資家が攻め込んでくる、ということを忘れないで頂きたい。

6-4. ライントレード日記をつける

ライントレードをする上では、『ライントレード日記』をつけることをおすすめしたい。

これは、取引の履歴を残していくのだ。初心者の頃は、その取引をしたときの心境などをメモに入れておいてもよい。この日記の目的は、2つある。

  1. ルール通りにしっかりトレードができたかどうかを確認するため。
  2. データ統計を蓄積して、今後のルール作りに活かしていくため。

① は、日記があるだけでも、随分と自分を律することができる。

②は、何百回も取引をしていると、どのタイミングで入ったときに勝率が高くなるか、低くなるか、ということを、統計で確認できるというメリットがある。

そして何より、自分自身で作った統計であることが大きい。人に教えてもらった手法の場合、それがちょっとうまくいかなかったりすると自信がなくなり、ルール通りの取引を継続できなくなる。

それが、自分自身の作ったルール・統計データであれば、信じ抜くことができるので、結果として、ルールをきっちり守り、トータルで気づいたら勝っていた、というパターンになりやすいからだ。

あくまで参考までにだが、エクセルを使った、トレード日記の一例を貼っておく。

ポイントは、ライントレードのルールを守れたかどうか、守れなかった場合はその理由を書いておくと、後で反省できる。

そして、単に取引結果を記すだけでなく、そのルール通りにもし、あと20pips同じ方向でエントリーしていたとしたらどうなっていたか。

さらにその後20pips同じ方向でエントリーしていたらどうなっていたか、というのを、エクセルの利点を活かして、勝ってたら1、負けてたら0、と記録しておくことをおすすめする。

表計算で、●勝△敗だったことが一発で分かる。

こうしておけば、後で分析検証して、自分なりのルールを作りやすくなるからだ。

例えば、こうやって積み重ねたデータ検証の結果、トレンドライントレードであれば、上昇トレンドのときは、「20pipsごとに3連続で買いで入り続ければ勝率60%はキープできる」であるとか、

下降トレンドのときは、20pips逆行(買い戻し)があった場合は、「次の20pipsは70%の確率で、さらに買い戻しが進みやすい」などの『傾向』が必ず見えてくる。

こうやって、『自らの手で汗水流してとった確固たる統計データ』を元にしたルールは、誰かに教えてもらって真似するルールとは違って、貫き通せるのだ。

FXで勝つためには、こうした地道な努力も不可欠なのである。

7. ライントレードのQ&A

Q1. ライントレード初心者はどの種類のライントレードで取引したほうがいい?

トレンドラインでのトレードだ。なぜなら、ライントレードの中では、最も線がひきやすいから。

そして、最も世界中で意識されている線=機能しやすい=勝ち組を見極めやすい=勝ち組に相乗りできるからだ。初心者は、トレンドに相乗りするのが、最も勝率の高い手法なのだ。

チャネルラインを使ってのレンジ相場の買売往復を取るのは初心者には少々難しい。

また、水平線トレードは、初心者のときは、水平線を少し割ったり越えたりしただけで飛び乗ってしまったり、気持ちが揺れ動いて損切り連発になりやすいのと、線を引く基準が個人の主観に依存する所が大きく、中級レベルになってからでよい。

Q2. ライントレードはどの時間足の組み合わせがおすすめ?

エントリータイミング用を5分足にして、エントリーの方向決定用として1時間足を使うのが、初心者におすすめ。

1分足は、あまりに動きが慌ただしい。5分足は初心者にはちょうどいい時間足。組み合わせ相手としては、15分足・30分足では短すぎるし、4時間足ではあまりに長すぎる。

1時間足はトレーダーたちが最も使っている時間足の1つであり、ライントレードのライン、つまり環境認識をする上でもちょうど良い時間の長さなので、まずは5分足と1時間足の組み合わせをおすすめする。

Q3. 自動でラインを引いてくれるインジケーターってどうなの?

自動で引いてくれるインジケーターもあるにはあるが、相場に合わせて後で修正が入るリペイント機能がある物がほとんどで、線が勝手に修正されるものばかりで、目の前のリアルタイムでの取引判断には役に立たない。

FXでは、中長期的に見れば、自動売買システムでは絶対に勝てないと断言しておく。

トレンドとレンジ(もみ合い)の両方の相場に対応して、放っておいてもそれらを自動で識別し、勝手に取引してくれて無限にお金が増えていく…などという甘い世界ではない。

読者の皆さんには、ネットやSNSでの自動売買の誇大広告に踊らされないで頂きたい。

Q4. ライントレードではどの通貨ペアがおすすめ?

ドル円を最もおすすめする。スプレッドが狭く、他の通貨に比べて癖が少ないので、ライントレードが機能しやすい。

さらに、値動き自体がゆっくりなので、慌てることがない。ポンド円を見て比較して頂くと、その値動きの差は一目瞭然である。

初心者がポンド円に手を出すと、3日も持たずに退場することになるので、それはおすすめできない。ドル円の次におすすめは、比較的スプレッドの小さいユーロドル、ユーロ円である。

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