【プロ解説】ピボットサポートラインで勝つ!使い方・トレード手法を解説

  • 新規ポジションを取るタイミングや決済をするタイミングがわからない
  • サポートラインやレジスタンスラインになる価格帯がわからない

このようなお悩みをお持ちではないだろうか。

例えば、あなたが勝ち組トレーダーと同じテクニカル指標を使って判断をしようとしても、パラメーターが違えば分析結果は異なるものになってしまう。 

FX初心者から中級者にとっては悩ましい問題であろう。

しかし、ピボットというテクニカル指標を使えば解決に近づけるだろう。

ピボットは他のテクニカル指標のようなパラメーターの設定がないため、FX初心者でも使いやすいテクニカル指標になっている。

パラメーターの設定がないため、ピボットを使うトレーダーはサポートラインやレジスタンスラインとして意識する価格帯を迷わずに判断できるのだ。

今回はピボットの使い方やトレード手法を徹底解説する。

FX初心者から中級者の方はぜひ自身のトレードの参考にしてほしい。

1. ピボットサポートラインはサポレジラインの指標になるツール

ピボットサポートラインを上手く使うことでFXの勝率を高めることが可能だ。

ピボットサポートラインとはピボットポイント(価格の重要ポイント)の上下に2本ずつ設定される合計4本のラインのことだ。(3本ずつ設定して合計6本のラインを使うトレーダーもいる)

ピボットサポートラインはその名の通り、サポートラインやレジスタンスラインとして機能することが多くある。

また、ピボットポイント自身がサポートラインやレジスタンスラインになることもあるので覚えておいてほしい。

ピボットサポートラインやピボットポイントを意識してトレードすることにより、サポートラインやレジスタンスラインになりそうな価格を把握して高勝率のFXトレードを目指そう。

1-1.そもそも「ピボット」とは

ピボットとは前営業日の「高値・安値・終値」を用いて、当日の相場の動きを予想するテクニカル指標だ。

ピボットは正式には「リアクション・トレンド・システム」と言い、パラボリックやRSIなどの有名なテクニカル指標を多数生み出したJ・ウエルズ・ワイルダー・ジュニアによって考案されたものである。

前営業日の「高値・安値・終値」を用いるため、パラメーターの設定が無いという珍しい特徴がある。

1-2. ピボットとフィボナッチ・リトレースメントの違い

フィボナッチ・リトレースメントはピボットと同様にサポートラインやレジスタンスラインとして機能する価格帯を予想できるテクニカル指標だ。

ピボットが前営業日の価格から算出されるのに対して、フィボナッチ・リトレースメントは相場の重要な高値と安値の2点使って算出される。

相場の重要な高値と安値はトレーダーが判断することになるため、トレーダーには豊富な相場の知識が求められる。

フィボナッチ・リトレースメントには、レオナルド・フィボナッチというイタリアの数学者が発見した「フィボナッチ数列」という自然界によく現れる数式が計算に使われる。

フィボナッチ・リトレースメントはFXでよく使われるテクニカル指標であり、

  • 23.6%
  • 38.2%
  • 50%
  • 61.8%

にあたる価格帯をサポートラインやレジスタンスラインとして使用することが一般的だ。

ピボットとフィボナッチ・リトレースメント併用し、サポートラインやレジスタンスラインが重なる価格帯を重要なサポートラインやレジスタンスラインとして判断するのもよいだろう。

2. ピボットサポートラインの算出方法

ピボットやピボットサポートラインの算出方法はシンプルだ。

以下のような計算式になる。

・ピボットポイント

「(前日高値+前日安値+前日終値)÷3」

・サポートライン1(S1)

「ピボットポイント×2 – 前日高値」

・レジスタンスライン1(R1)

「ピボットポイント×2 – 前日安値」

・サポートライン2(S2)

「ピボットポイント-前日高値+前日安値」

・サポートライン2(S2)

「ピボットポイント-前日高値+前日安値」

・レジスタンスライン2(R2)

「ピボットポイント+前日高値-前日安値」

サポートラインは「S」、レジスタンスラインは「R」と略されることもあるので覚えておこう。

また、サポートライン3(S3)やレジスタンスライン3(R3)を使用するトレーダーもいるので余裕があれば試してみてほしい。

計算式は、

・サポートライン3(S3)

「ピボットポイント×2-前日高値×2– 前日安値」

・レジスタンスライン3(R3)

「ピボットポイント×2- 前日安値×2+前日高値」

となる。

3. ピボットサポートラインの使い方

ピボットサポートラインは新規ポジションを取る際や利益確定の時の参考として使われることが多い。

なぜなら、ピボットサポートラインがサポートラインやレジスタンスラインになることを想定してトレードをおこなうからだ。

例えば、「買い」で新規ポジションを取る際には、サポートライン1(S1)やサポートライン2(S2)の少し上の価格でポジションを取る。

そうすれば、買いポジションを取って価格が逆行してしまったとしても、サポートライン1やサポートライン2で反発することが期待できる。

ピボットサポートラインがサポートラインやレジスタンスラインとして機能することを意識してトレードをおこなうようにしよう。

4.ピボットを使ったトレンドの判断方法

ピボットを使うことによりトレンドを判断することも可能だ。

方法はとてもシンプルで、

  • ピボットポイントよりも価格が上なら上昇トレンド
  • ピボットポイントよりも価格が下なら下降トレンド

というように判断する。

また、

  • ピボットポイントよりも価格が大きく上昇していれば強い上昇トレンド
  • ピボットポイントよりも価格が大きく下落していれば強い下降トレンド

という判断にもなる。

ピボットを使ったトレンドの判断は、ピボットだけを使うのではなくチャートの形状や他のテクニカル指標と組み合わせることで精度をあげるようにしよう。

5. ピボットサポートラインを利用したトレード手法

ピボットサポートラインを利用したトレードは順張りの手法と逆張り手法の両方に使うことが可能だ。

以下、順に解説させていただく。

5-1.ピボットサポートラインを利用した順張り手法

ピボットポイントよりも価格が上なら上昇トレンド、下なら下降トレンドと考えて順張り手法をすることができる。

特に、ピボットポイントよりも価格が大きく上昇、または下落していれば強い上昇トレンドや強い下落トレンドと判断することができるので大きなチャンスとなる。

もし、サポートライン3やレジスタンスライン3を価格が超えていくようなら、トレンドの勢いが非常に強いということになるので大きな利益が期待できる。

また、値動きの活発なロンドン市場とニューヨーク市場前半は、トレンドが出やすい時間帯と言える。そのため、ピボットサポートラインをブレイクアウトしやすく、順張り手法が有効になりやすい。

5-2.ピボットサポートラインを利用した逆張り手法

逆張り手法をおこなう場合は、サポートライン1~3(S1~3)やレジスタンスライン1~3(R1~3)で価格の上昇や下落が跳ね返されたところを狙おう。

ピボットサポートラインやレジスタンスラインが確実に機能するとは言えないため、機能して価格が反発したことを確認してからトレードをすることで勝率が高まるのだ。

また、午前中や市場が閑散とするニューヨーク市場後半の時間帯は、ボラティリティが小さくなりがちだ。そのため、ピボットサポートラインで反発しやすく、逆張りトレードが有効になりやすいことも覚えておこう。

5-3.決済のタイミング

ピボットサポートラインを利用した手法の場合は、ピボットポイントへの到達で決済をしたり、サポートライン1~3やレジスタンスライン1~3への到達で決済をしたりすることが一般的だ。

ただし、他のテクニカル指標を使用したり、直近高値や直近安値を決済の目安にしたりするトレーダーも多いので自分に合った決済の仕方を試してみるとよいだろう。

6.ピボットとの組み合わせにおすすめのテクニカル指標

ピボットは他のテクニカル指標と組み合わせることで、「長期トレンドの把握がしづらい」という短所を補うことが可能だ。

以下、ピボットとの組み合わせにおすすめのテクニカル指標を2つ解説させていただく。

6.1移動平均線

期間の長い移動平均線を使うことで長期のトレンドを把握し、ピボットの短所を補うことが可能だ。

ピボットは前営業日の価格から計算されるテクニカル指標のため、長期のトレンドを把握することは不向きであると言われている。

そのため、例えば50日・75日・200日移動平均線などの期間の長い移動平均線を使用して長期のトレンドを判断することが望ましい。

ピボットで短期のトレンドを把握し、移動平均線で長期のトレンドを把握することにより、短期と長期のトレンドが一致した時にトレードをして勝率を上げることができるのである。

6.2MACD

MACDはトレンドを把握しやすいテクニカル指標のため、ピボットの短所を補うことを手軽におこなうことが可能だ。

基本的には、MACDラインがシグナルラインを下から上に抜けたゴールデンクロスなら上昇トレンド、MACDラインがシグナルラインを上から下に抜けたデットクロスが下降トレンドと判断できる。

ピボットとMACDのトレンドが一致した時にトレードをおこなうことでダマシを減らすことが期待できるだろう。

7.ピボットの注意点

ピボットは非常に有効で使いやすいテクニカル指標であるが、使用するうえで注意していただきたい点がある。

以下で2点解説させていただく。

7.1ピボットサポートラインが有効なのは当日限り

ピボットサポートラインが有効なのは当日限りとなる。

なぜなら、ピボットは前営業日の価格から算出されるものであるからだ。

日付ごとにピボットサポートラインが変化することに注意することが必要になる。

7.2ピボットサポートライン同士の幅に注意

ピボットサポートライン同士の幅がせまくなると、トレンドが変化する前兆と考えられるので覚えておいてほしい。

また、反対にピボットサポートライン同士の幅が広がっている場合は、価格の振れ幅が大きくなりやすいと言われておりリスクが上がりやすく注意が必要だ。

この2つを合わせて覚えておくことにより、トレードのリスクを軽減させることが可能だ。

ピボットサポートラインの幅は新規ポジションを取る前にしっかりと確認しておこう。

まとめ

ここまでピボットの使い方やトレード手法を中心に解説させていただいた。

ピボットを使ったトレードに慣れれば、新規ポジションを取るタイミングや決済のタイミングで悩むことは少なくなるだろう。

さらに、サポートラインやレジスタンスラインになりそうな価格帯を判断できることにより、今までより優位性が高いトレードをおこなうことが可能となる。

ピボットは世界中で多くのトレーダーが使用している、実績のあるテクニカル指標だ。

ピボットに慣れてきたら他のインジケーターと組み合わせて、より精度の高いトレードをおこなえるようにチャレンジしてみてほしい。

あなたがピボットを使ってFXで勝てるようになることを願っている。 

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