【プロスペクト理論】FX投資で勝つための心理学!4つの実践的な方法!

  • プロスペクト理論はFX投資でも重要なの?
  • プロスペクト理論を克服する方法は?
  • プロスペクト理論に関して学べる本のオススメは?

FX投資の世界では、よく話題として挙げられることが多い”プロスペクト理論”だが、その内容に関してしっかりと理解している人は少ない。

プロスペクト理論は、行動経済学最大の成果とも呼ばれており、2002年には提唱者の1人でもある心理学者の”ダニエル・カーネマン”氏が、

ノーベル経済学賞を受賞した大変権威ある理論の一つだ。

そのため、FX投資に限らず人の行動の大半は、プロスペクト理論によって説明できるといっても過言ではない。

本記事ではFX投資におけるプロスペクト理論の重要性と、克服するための方法等を分かりやすく解説している。

最後まで読んでいただくことで、プロスペクト理論を克服するためのきっかけが、必ず掴めるはずだ。

この記事の結論
  • プロスペクト理論とは咬合経済学の一つである
  • プロスペクト理論は取引ルールを明確に定め厳格に守ることで克服できる
  • プロスペクト理論を克服することでFX取引の勝率を上げることができる

1.FX投資におけるプロスペクト理論とは”行動経済学”の一種である

プロスペクト理論は、心理学者の”ダニエル・カーメネマン”氏と”エイベル・トベルスキー”氏の2人によって、提唱された理論だ。

人間は頭で分かってはいても、いざとなると感情に邪魔されて合理的な行動が取れないというのが、プロスペクト理論の真髄といっても良いだろう。

分かりやすく説明しよう。例えば、2つの質問に対してあなたはどう答えるだろうか。

  1. 10万円が無条件でもらえる
  2. コインを投げ、表が出たら20万円がもらえるが、裏であったらもらえない
  1. 無条件で借金10万円が減る
  2. コインを投げ、表が出たら借金が全額免除されるが、裏が出たら借金はそのまま

一般的には最初の質問では①と答える人が多く、後の質問に対しては②と答える人が多い。

経済学的な”期待値”に関しては、どちらも10万円であり同じにも関わらず、結果的には答えが別れてしまう訳だ。

プロスペクト理論を踏まえて解説すると、最初の質問で①と答えた人は、比較的堅実な考え方だといえる。

ただし、後の質問に対して②と答えた人は、比較的ギャンブル的な思考だと言えるだろう。

2つの質問は全く異なる内容であるが、最初の質問で①と答えた人は、高確率で後の質問で②と答えている。

つまり、人間は目の前に利益が転がっていると、利益が手に入らないことを恐れて、リスクを回避しようとする。

逆に、損失が目の前にあると、損失そのものを回避しようとする訳だ。

分かりやすくFX投資に置き換えてみよう。

  • 少しでも利益が出ている状態であれば、早々に利益確定しようとする
  • 逆に、少しでも損失があると、なかなか現実的には損切りが容易にできない

FX投資で負ける人の要因が、正にプロスペクト理論が克服できてないこと、だといっても過言ではないだろう。

2.プロスペクト理論がFX投資で重要視される3つの理由

FX投資においてプロスペクト理論が重要視される主な理由としては、3つ挙げられる。

プロスペクト理論をFX投資に紐づけて考えることで、これまでなぜFXトレードで負けてきたのかが理解できるはずだ。

また、負ける要因を論理的に把握することで、次に同じようなパターンがきた場合、負けないようにすることもできる。

2-1.サンクコストを考えてしまい損切りができない

“サンクコスト”とは、経済学でよく使われる言葉であり、すでに回収不可能なコストのことを意味する。

ちなみに、行動経済学では”コンコルド効果”とも言われる。意味に関してはどちらも同じだ。

例えば5,000円の食べ放題のお店で、あなたが食事をしたとしよう。

大概の人は元を取ろうとして、大量に注文して食べきれなくなることが多い。

元を取ろうとする行動は、すでに支払った代金に対して、お金が勿体ないと強く感じているからに他ならない。

つまり、失ったお金はもとには戻らないのに、無理に元を取ろうとする心理こそが”サンクコスト効果”なのだ。

FX投資に置き換えると、最初に投資した金額が含み損を抱えているにも関わらず、いつまで経っても損切りができないのと同じだと言える。

2-2.人間はそもそも合理的な行動ができない

そもそも人間はいざという時になると、頭では分かっていても、合理的な行動が取れない生き物だ。

それはプロスペクト理論が証明しているといっても過言ではない訳だが、FX投資の世界でも同じようなことが言える。

FX投資の世界では基本的に”損小利大”の考え方を持って、取り組むことがセオリーだとされている。

簡単にいったら損失は小さく抑え、利益は大きく伸ばすことで、総合的な利益を大きくするということだ。

そのため、FX投資では目の前の損得だけを考えるのではなく、長いスパンで物事を考えて判断することが重要となる。

しかしながら、それを頭では理解していても、いざとなるとプロスペクト理論が働き、間違った行動をするのが本来の人間なのだ。

2-3.人間は損を極端に嫌う習性がある

人間は買い物をする際にお金を支払うことで、肌をつねられた程度の痛みを感じていると言われている。

お金を失うことがいかに人間にとって、痛みを伴っている行為であるかは、誰もが感じていることではないだろうか。

しかし、クレジットカードやPayPayなどのキャッシュレスで決済した場合、現金で直接支払った時よりも、心が軽いはずだ。

お金を支払うという行為が現金で支払った際と比較して、軽減されているからに他ならない。

FX投資に置き換えると、目の前の小さな損失がなかなか受け入れることができずにいる状態と、全く同じだと言えるだろう。

3.FX投資で勝つためにプロスペクト理論を克服する4つの方法

FX投資で勝つためには、プロスペクト理論を克服する必要がある。

理論に関して理解を深めることはもちろん大事なことだが、それ以上に具体的な行動を取ることで、

確実にプロスペクト理論を克服することができる。

主な克服の仕方としては、4つ挙げられる。

それぞれFX投資を行う上では重要なことばかりなので、まだ実践していない方は、今日からでも取り組んでみて欲しい。

3-1.取引ルールを明確に定める・厳格に守る

プロスペクト理論からも分かるように、FX投資ではトレーダーの感情が取引に大きく影響を与える。

インターネット上では様々な取引手法が出回っている訳だが、どれもテクニカル手法でインジケーターを参考にして、機械的にトレードを行う場合が多い。

専業トレーダーが勝率が高い取引手法を公開しているにも関わらず、多くのトレーダーが勝てないのは、

取引に感情移入してしまうことが大きな原因といっても過言ではないだろう。

そのため、FX投資を行う際には必ず取引に関するルールを自身でしっかりと決めた上で、取り組むことが大切だ。

例えば、次のような取引ルールなどが挙げられる。

  • 決済と損切りのラインを決める
  • 裁量判断でトレードをしない
  • トレードする際には、指値と逆指値をすぐいれる

あくまでも参考程度に挙げてみたが、実際に取引ルールを作る際には、具体的な数値なども定めるようにして欲しい。

3-2.取引手法を1から勉強しなおし過去検証してみる

FX投資は決してギャンブルではないため、勉強することである程度は勝率を上げることができる。

今使っている取引手法なども、一度ロジックを最初から勉強し直すことで、新たな発見などもあるかもしれない。

また、FXの相場は人が形成したものであるため、過去の相場は必ず未来でも同じように形作られることが多い。

そのため、過去のチャートから学べることは大変多いとも言える。

また、他の専業トレーダーがなぜ勝てているのかや、自身がなぜ勝てないのかなど、まずは現状を疑ってみるのも大切なことだ。

プロスペクト理論を克服し、感情でFXトレードを行わないためにも、今一度勉強し直すというのも有効な手段の一つだと言えるだろう。

3-3.長期的な目線で考え負けを受け入れる

プロスペクト理論による行動を引き起こさないためにも、FX投資では長期目線で考えて、目の前の取引を判断する必要がある。

とはいえ、いざとなれば感情に左右されてしまうのが人間であるため、長期スパンで考える癖をつけるためにも、

毎回のトレード結果を記録するようにして欲しい。

例え目の前のトレードで負けたとしても、長期的にみて利益が出ていれば問題ないと言える。

また、勝ち負けの収支を記録することで、負けた取引を見直し手法を改善することもできる。

3-4.FX投資から一度離れて気分転換する

FX投資でストレス高になっている人は、一度離れてみるのも有効な手段だ。

特にデイトレードなどを行なっている人だと、画面を見ている時間が長くなってしまうため、実生活に集中できない人が多い。

他のことをやっていても頭の中では、FX投資のことを考えている場合もあるため、最低でも1週間程度は離れてみることをおすすめする。

FX投資から一度離れてみることで、これまで見えなかったものが、見えるようになるはずだ。

4.FX投資でプロスペクト理論から脱却する為のおすすめ本3選

FX投資でプロスペクト理論から脱去したい方に、多くの中からおすすめの本を3つに絞って、それぞれ解説している。

金融投資を行う上では必ず押さえておきたい理論なので、是非とも気になる本を一つ選んで、体系的にプロスペクト理論を学んで欲しい。

また、FX初心者でも理解しやすい本をピックアップしているため、内容が難しくて理解できない、ということはないはずだ。

4-1.武器としての図で考える習慣: 「抽象化思考」のレッスン

出典:Amazon

タイトルにある通り本書は、図として考えることで頭の中を整理するやり方だ。

感情で行動している人は、論理的な思考ができていない人が多いため、

迷ったら一度図で状況を書き出して状況を整理することで、間違った行動を回避できるという訳だ。

考えを整理するためにリストや図で書き出すことは、以前から推奨されてきたことでもあるが、

本書ではより具体的な方法が分かりやすく解説されている。

4-2.図解でわかる ランダムウォーク&行動ファイナンス理論のすべて

出典:Amazon

本書では、投資行動の本質を学べる内容となっている。

FX投資では約9割の人が、長期的に勝つことが出来ていないとされているが、

勝てない原因にはプロスペクト理論を始めとした、投資行動が深く関係している。

投資の世界では特に感情に左右されやすい傾向があるため、投資行動を深く理解することで、

同じようなパターンで負けないようにすることができるという訳だ。

4-3.ダニエル・カーネマン 心理と経済を語る

出典:Amazon

本書はプロスペクト理論の提唱者であり、ノーベル経済学賞受賞者でもある、“ダニエル・カーネマン”氏が書いた一冊だ。

行動経済学の創始者とも呼ばれているカーネマン氏は、経済における人間の行動原理に関して、研究結果を元に論理的に解説されている。

FX投資においても行動経済学を知ることはとても重要なことであり、プロスペクト理論の提唱者が書いた本なので、

FXトレーダーであれば是非とも読んでおきたいところだろう。

5.FX投資におけるプロスペクト理論に関するよくあるQ&A

FX投資におけるプロスペクト理論に関する多くの質問や悩みの中から、特に多かった内容だけに絞って、回答を分かりやすくまとめてみた。

FX投資で負け続けているという人は、プロスペクト理論が関係していることが多いため、是非とも参考にして欲しい。

また、取り上げていない内容で気になることがある人は、必ず自身で納得が行くまで調べた上で、トレードに臨ようにしてくれ。

プロスペクト理論は、何もFX投資だけに限った話ではなく、仕事や恋愛、趣味など

あらゆるところで見受けられる人間の行動心理と言っても過言ではない。

その他、Webマーケティングの世界でもプロスペクト理論は、よく活用されている。

プロスペクト理論を理解することで、あらゆる場面で自身の行動を客観的に考えることができるようになるだろう。

そのため、プロスペクト理論を知らない人と比較すると、少なからず不幸からは遠ざかることができるはずだ。

プロスペクト理論を克服するための方法としては、一度取引手法を見直すのも有効な手段だといえる。

今使っている取引手法を一度疑ってみることで、より深くロジックに関して理解できるとともに、

これまで気づかなかったことにも気づけるかもしれない。

また、取引手法を見直すことは、トレードでの勝率を上げることにも繋がるので、定期的に行うべき項目といっても良いだろう。

プロスペクト理論を克服する簡単な方法としては、主に4つある。

  1. 取引ルールを明確に定める・厳格に守る
  2. 取引手法を1から勉強しなおし過去検証してみる
  3. 長期的な目線で考え負けを受け入れる
  4. FX投資から一度離れて気分転換する

どれもFX投資を行う上では大変重要なことなので、プロスペクト理論を克服する以前に、

FX投資で勝ちたいのであれば、必ず取り組んで欲しい項目と言っても過言ではない

FX投資の世界ではよくプロスペクト理論が取り上げられるが、毎回のトレードを機械的に実行できる人はそうそういない為、

必ず自身でも勉強することが大切だ。

プロスペクト理論を知っているか知らないかで、FX投資におけるストレスもかなり軽減されることだろう。

トレードにおける敗因の多くはプロスペクト理論が関係していることが多いため、

原因を把握し勝率を上げるためにも、必ずプロスペクト理論は抑えておいて欲しい

結論から言うと、決してプロスペクト理論から逃れられないことはない。

理論に関するロジックがしっかりと把握できていて、尚且つ克服するやり方や方法を実践している人であれば、簡単い逃れられるからだ。

逆に、プロスペクト理論から逃れることが出来ていない人は、裁量判断でトレードしている場合が多く、

結果的にFX投資がただのギャンブルになっている場合が多い。

まとめ|プロスペクト理論を克服してFX取引で勝てるようになろう!

プロスペクト理論は行動経済学の一つとして、分かりやすく解説してきた。

FX投資におけるプロスペクト理論を克服するやり方は、主に4つ。

  1. 取引ルールを明確に定める・厳格に守る
  2. 取引手法を1から勉強しなおし過去検証してみる
  3. 長期的な目線で考え負けを受け入れる
  4. FX投資から一度離れて気分転換する

少しでもまだ克服できていないと感じている人は、実践してみて欲しい。

FX投資においてもプロスペクト理論は、とても重要な考え方であり、

ロジックを正しく理解しておくことで、よりFXトレードの勝率を上げることができるだろう。

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