スパンモデルで勝率UP!使い方・トレード手法を現役トレーダーが解説

スパンモデルはトレンドに乗ったり、トレンドの転換点を捉えたりすることができる非常に便利なテクニカル指標だ。

ただし、移動平均線やRSIなどと比べるとメジャーなテクニカル指標とは言えない。

そのため、「自分のスパンモデルの使い方は正しいのか」、「表示されている線の意味は何なのか」というような悩みや疑問を持っている人は多いだろう。

しかし、スパンモデルを正しく理解し使いこなせれば、相場で利益をあげるのに非常に役立つ。

今回はスパンモデルの使い方とトレード手法について解説していくので、ぜひ自身のトレードの参考にしてほしい。

1.スパンモデルとはリアルタイムの相場分析を重視したテクニカル指標

スパンモデルとは一目均衡表を基にして作られたテクニカル指標だ。

スパンモデルは、元証券ディーラーの柾木利彦氏(マーフィー)が考案者である。

一目均衡表と比べて、スパンモデルはシンプルかつリアルタイムの相場分析を重視したテクニカル指標になっている。

1-1.スパンモデルの使い方

スパンモデルはトレンドに乗ったり(トレンドフォロー)やトレンドの転換点を捉えることを目的に使うことができる。

相場の分析は、ゾーン(一目均衡表で言う「雲」)や遅行スパンを使用しておこなう。

スパンモデルは一目均衡表よりシンプルな構成になっており、相場の状況が判断しやすいという特長がある。

1-2. スパンモデルと一目均衡表の違い

まず、スパンモデルは

  • 青色スパン(先行スパン1)
  • 赤色スパン(先行スパン2)
  • 遅行スパン

によって構成されている。

これに対して、一目均衡表は

  • 転換線
  • 基準線
  • 先行スパン1
  • 先行スパン2
  • 遅行スパン

によって構成されている。

スパンモデルは3つのラインで構成されており、一目均衡表と比べてシンプルな設計になっていることが分かるだろう。

また、一目均衡表では先行スパン1と先行スパン2の間(いわゆる雲)をローソク足25本分先に表示するのに対し、スパンモデルでは先行スパン1と先行スパン2の間(スパンモデルでは雲ではなくゾーンと呼ぶ)をリアルタイムの位置に表示する。

これは一目均衡表が将来の値動きの予測を重視しており、スパンモデルは現在の相場状況を重視しているという差から生まれている違いである。

2.スパンモデルを使うメリット

スパンモデルを使うメリットとしては

  • 一目均衡表よりシンプルな構成になっている
  • 現在の相場状況が判断しやすい
  • 1つのインジケーターでゾーン(雲)と遅行スパンの2つのシグナルを確認可能

という点が挙げられる。

スパンモデルは3本の線で構成されており、5本の線で構成される一目均衡表よりシンプルで分かりやすいテクニカル指標だと言える。

さらにゾーン(雲)が直近のローソク足に表示されるため、現在のサポートラインやレジスタンスラインが一目で分かるようになっている。

また、ゾーンの売買シグナルと遅行スパンの売買シグナルという2つの売買シグナルが両方出た際にトレードをおこなうことで、精度の高いトレードをおこなうことが可能となる。

そのため、ゾーンと遅行スパンは常に両方見ておくことをおすすめする。

3.スパンモデルを使うデメリット

スパンモデルを使う上でのデメリットとしては

  • 弱いトレンドでは利益をあまり上げられない
  • レンジ相場ではダマシが出やすい
  • 移動平均線等と比べると複雑なため、FX初心者には慣れが必要

という点が挙げられる。

まず、スパンモデルはトレンドが弱いとあまり利益が出ない。

なぜならスパンモデルはトレンド系(トレンドに乗ってトレードをおこなうことが目的)のインジケーターであるからだ。

さらに、トレンド系のインジケーターであるがために、レンジ相場では上手く機能せずダマシが多くなってしまうという傾向もある。

また、移動平均線などと比べるとスパンモデルは多少複雑なため、FX初心者はスパンモデルに慣れる期間が必要になるだろう。

4.スパンモデルの3つのラインと計算式

スパンモデルのラインは3つのみであり、一目均衡表よりシンプルで分かりやすくなっている。

以下、解説させていただく。

4-1.青色スパン

青色スパン(先行スパン1):短期線

計算式

青色スパン(先行スパン1)=(過去のローソク足9本の高値+過去のローソク足9本の安値+過去26本の高値+過去26本の安値)÷4

4-2.赤色スパン

赤色スパン(先行スパン2):長期線

計算式

赤色スパン(先行スパン)=(過去のローソク足52本の高値+過去のローソク足52本の安値)÷2

5.スパンモデルの見方

スパンモデルで重要なものはゾーン(雲)と遅行スパンになる。

スパンモデルではゾーン(雲)と遅行スパンを使ってトレードをおこなうか判断することが多いからだ。

以下、ゾーンと遅行スパンについて解説する。

5-1.スパンモデルの「ゾーン(雲)」の見方

スパンモデルのゾーン(雲)は青色スパン(先行スパン1)と赤色スパン(先行スパン2)の間の空間のことだ。

スパンモデルのゾーンを見ることで、相場のトレンド方向と強弱、転換点を判断できる。

5-1-1.トレンドの判断

スパンモデルのゾーンを見ることで、トレンドの判断をすることが可能だ。

具体的には

  • 青色スパンが赤色スパンよりも上であれば上昇トレンド
  • 青色スパンが赤色スパンよりも下であれば下降トレンド

となる。

例えば、青色スパン(短期線)が赤色スパン(長期線)より上になるということは、短期線が長期線を上抜けているので上昇トレンドということになる。

これは移動平均線でいうゴールデンクロスと同じ考え方になる。

5-1-2.トレンドの強弱

スパンモデルはトレンドの強弱を判断することができる。

ゾーンに厚みがあれば強いトレンド、逆にゾーンが薄ければ弱いトレンドとなる。

ゾーンが厚いということは、青色スパン(短期線)が強く上昇しているということを意味するからだ。

5-1-3.トレンドの転換点

スパンモデルはゾーンのねじれに注目することで、相場の転換点を把握することが可能だ。

青色スパンと赤色スパンの位置関係が反転することにより、トレンドが反転するからだ。

例えば、青色スパンが赤色スパンより上にある時は上昇トレンドと判断できるが、ゾーンがねじれて青色スパンが赤色スパンより下にくれば下落トレンドに変わったと判断できる。

ゾーンがねじれたらトレンドが転換した可能性を頭に入れてトレードをおこなうことをおすすめする。

5-1-4.サポートラインとレジスタンスライン

スパンモデルではゾーンの上限と下限がサポートラインやレジスタンスラインになることがある。

そのため、ゾーンの上限と下限は新規ポジションや利確、損切りの目安とすることが可能だ。

例えば、ゾーンの上限がサポートラインになったことを確認し、押し目買いで新規ポジションを取るといったことが考えられる。

ゾーンの上限と下限がサポートラインやレジスタンスラインとして機能するかどうかは相場状況によるので、しっかりと確認しておくようにしよう。

5-2.スパンモデルの「遅行スパン」の見方

スパンモデルではゾーンだけではなく、遅行スパンでも相場のトレンド方向と転換点を判断できる。

以下、解説させていただく。

5-2-1.トレンドの判断

スパンモデルでは遅行スパンを見ることで、トレンドの判断をすることが可能だ。

具体的には

  • 遅行スパンがローソク足の上にある場合は上昇トレンド
  • 遅行スパンがローソク足の下にある場合は下降トレンド
  • 遅行スパンがローソク足と何度もタッチを繰り返す場合はレンジ相場

と判断できる。

5-2-2.トレンドの転換点

遅行スパンとローソク足がクロスしたタイミングがトレンドの転換点となる。

具体的には

  • 遅行スパンがローソク足を上抜けたら上昇トレンドへ転換
  • 遅行スパンがローソク足を下抜けたら下降トレンドへ転換
  • 遅行スパンがローソク足の上抜けと下抜けを繰り返す場合はレンジ相場

と判断できる。

6.スパンモデルを利用したトレード手法

スパンモデルではゾーンと遅行スパンを両方使って総合的に判断してトレードをおこなうことで勝率を高めることが可能だ。

トレード手法としてはトレンドに乗る方法と転換点を捉える方法がある。

6-1.トレンドに乗る(トレンドフォロー)

トレンドに乗るための手法のルールとしては、まずはゾーンが

  • 買いシグナルが発生した時(青色スパンが赤色スパンより上になった時)に「ローソク足の終値がゾーンの下」にあれば「買い」
  • 売りシグナルが発生した時(青色スパンが赤色スパンより下になった時)に「ローソク足の終値がゾーンの上」にあれば「売り」

となる。

これに加えて遅行スパンが

  • 遅行スパンがローソク足の上にある場合は上昇トレンドと判断して「買い」
  • 遅行スパンがローソク足の下にある場合は下降トレンドと判断して「売り」

となる。

ゾーンとスパンモデル両方のシグナルを確認してから売買をおこなうことで勝率を高めることが可能だ。

6-2.トレンドの転換点を捉える

トレンドの転換点では、価格が一度逆行することも多い。

例えば、買いシグナルが発生した時には一度価格が下がってから上昇トレンドに入るといった現象だ。

トレンドの転換点での価格の逆行現象を捉えるためには、

  • 買いシグナルが発生した時(青色スパンが赤色スパンより上になった時)にローソク足の終値がゾーンの上にあれば「売り」
  • 売りシグナルが発生した時(青色スパンが赤色スパンより下になった時)にローソク足の終値がゾーンの下にあれば「買い」

と判断してほしい。

加えて遅行スパンのシグナルは

  • 遅行スパンがローソク足の上にある場合は上昇トレンドと判断して「買い」
  • 遅行スパンがローソク足の下にある場合は下降トレンドと判断して「売り」

となる。

勝率を高めたいのであれば、ゾーンとスパンモデル両方のシグナルを確認してから売買をおこなう。

注意点として、価格の逆行現象には目安となる期間がある。

  • 1分から5分足はローソク足8本
  • 15分足はローソク足7本
  • 30分足はローソク足6本
  • 1時間足以上はローソク足5本

が目安となるので覚えておこう。

まとめ

ここまで「スパンモデルの使い方とトレード手法」を解説した。

スパンモデルはトレンドフォローやトレンドの転換点を捉えることができる非常に強力なテクニカル指標だ。

ゾーンと遅行スパンを上手く使えば、トレンドフォローのタイミングやトレンドの転換点を分析できるようになるだろう。

また、ゾーンと遅行スパン両方が同じ方向のシグナルを出してからトレードをおこなうことで高勝率トレードを実現できるので、ゾーンと遅行スパンは常に両方チェックするようにしてほしい。

スパンモデルを使用して自分のトレードの精度を高め、相場で大きな利益をあげてくれることを願っている。

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