【危険】トルコリラの積立投資は高リスク!FX初心者に無理な2つの理由

  • トルコリラの積立投資を検討しているけど実際どうなの?
  • トルコリラにはどのようなリスクがあるの?
  • 今後トルコリラの価格は上がる?

世界的な低金利時代の中で唯一、高金利を維持しているトルコ。

一時期は金利24%の時もあったが、今はトルコの政策金利も19%に落ち着いてきている。

とはいえ、日本の政策金利は今現在-0.1%なので、トルコと比較すると圧倒的な違いだ。

“トルコリラ/円”の為替レートも13円とかなり低いことから、最近はトルコリラを定期的に購入しながら、積立投資を行う人も多い。

しかし、結論からいうとトルコリラの積立投資はおすすめしない。

なぜなら、今後対円での価格が上昇するかは不透明だからだ。

特にFX初心者が気軽に手を出して良いものではないと言える。

本記事ではトルコリラでの積立投資に関するメリットとデメリット、また実際に積立投資を行う際に利用する、おすすめのFX会社なども分かりやすく解説している。

最後まで読んでいただく事で、トルコリラの積立投資に関するリスクを、しっかりと理解する事ができるだろう。

この記事の結論
  • トルコリラの価格が今後上がるかは不透明
  • トルコリラは投機性が高くFX初心者にはおすすめしない
  • トルコリラは高金利なのでスワップ運用には最適

1.トルコリラの積立投資が危険な主な3つの理由

トルコリラの積立投資が危険な主な理由の中でも、特に注目して欲しいのが対円でのトルコリラの下落が、続いているということだ。

主に”ドルコスト平均法”と呼ばれる積立投資のやり方は、相場が上がることが前提として考えられているため、相場が上がらなければ意味がない。

また、今後の見通しが不透明な理由としては、トルコの主要貿易国である米国との関係悪化なども、大きな要因となっている。

1-1.対円で長期的に下落が続いている

出典:楽天証券

表は”トルコリラ/円”の10年間の為替レートを現したデータだ。

価格は約5年前から長期的に右肩下がりとなっており、世間では底値をついたとされているが、正直今後も下がらないとは言い切れない。

なぜなら、世界的なコロナショックの影響がまだまだ継続的に続いており、価格が上がるような兆しが見えないからだ。

そのため、仮に今から”トルコリラ/円”で積立投資を行っても、利益を得るためにはかなりの時間が必要になるため、経験が浅いFX初心者は途中で売ってしまう可能性が高い。

1-2.強制ロスカットを免れるのが難しい

強制ロスカットとは、ポジションの含み損が膨らんでしまい、証拠金維持率がFX会社が定めている基準を下回ると、強制的にポジションを決済されるシステムだ。

強制的に決済されるため、その時点で損失が確定する。

トルコリラで強制ロスカットされる要因としては、主に2つある。

  1. 相場の急落
  2. ハイレバレッジ取引

トルコリラは金利が高いため、スワップ運用には大変適した通貨であるが、相場に関してはかなり不安定で投機性が高い。

そのため、相場が急落すると損切り注文が間に合わずに、強制ロスカットをしてしまうわけだ。

また、トルコリラでハイレバレッジ取引を行うと、わずかな為替変動でも含み損が膨らみやすくなるため、同じく強制ロスカットの対象となりやすい。

1-3.米国との関係悪化で今後も見通しが不透明

2018年8月にアメリカがトルコに対して、制裁関税を発したことで起きた”トルコショック”は大変有名な話だ。

トルコショックが起きたことによって、トルコリラの価格は当時15円まで下落し、その頃もトルコリラは底値をついたと言われていた。

ことの発端はトルコの元大統領であるエルドアン氏が、アメリカとロシアの間でバランス外交を行っていた事が、一つの要因として挙げられる。

その後、コロナショックによりトルコリラは更に下落し、価格は13円まで落ちた訳だが、現在もアメリカとの関係性はあまり良くない状況が続いている。

また、世界的なコロナの影響がいまだに続いていることも考えると、今後トルコリラの価格が上がるかどうかは、いまだ不透明だと言えるだろう。

2.トルコリラを積立投資した場合のシミュレーション

月数月毎のスワップポイント総額スワップポイント
1ヶ月目1,1341,134
2ヶ月目2,2683,402
3ヶ月目3,4026,804
4ヶ月目4,53611,340
5ヶ月目5,67017,010
6ヶ月目6,80423,814
7ヶ月目7,93831,752
8ヶ月目9,07240,824
9ヶ月目10,20651,030
10ヶ月目11,34062,370
11ヶ月目12,47474,844
12ヶ月目13,60888,452
※ レバレッジは3倍設定

表は毎月1万円づつトルコリラを積立投資した場合の、得られるスワップポイントの割合を示している。

レバレッジは3倍設定なので、強制ロスカットのリスクも低めであり、よっぽど大きな変動がない限り確実にスワップ運用で利益を得る事ができる。

トルコリラは為替差益で利益を出すのは難しいが、高金利なためスワップ運用には大変適していると言えるだろう。

ただし、価格変動リスクがあるため、最初から多くの資金を注ぎ込むのはおすすめしない。

あくまでも投資資金を失っても問題ない金額で、少しづつ行うのが良いだろう。

3.トルコリラで積立投資を行う2つのメリット

トルコリラで積立投資を行う際には、できるだけ価格変動リスクを減らすためにも、毎月少額の買い付けがおすすめ。

基本的にはスワップ運用がメインとなるため、為替差益では利益が期待できないが、長期的な積立投資なら今後価格の上昇を期待できる可能性も高いと言える。

また、積立投資であればレバレッジ3倍設定で、手元に10万円の資金があれば、十分に利益が狙えることも確かだ。

3-1.価格変動リスクを減らすことができる

積立投資は基本的に”ドルコスト平均法”と呼ばれる、相場に左右されない投資手法で行う。

ドルコスト平均法では、相場価格に関係なく一度設定したタイミングで毎回一定額を購入するため、相場に左右されずに淡々と積立投資ができるやり方だ。

FX初心者でも一度設定したら後は、放置しておいても問題なく、将来的に高い利益を獲得できる確率が高い。

3-2.高金利のスワップポイントが得られる

“トルコリラ/円”は金利が高いことから、スワップ運用を行う際によく使われる通貨ペアだ。

ただし、長期的にトルコリラは下落傾向が続いているため、為替差益で利益を得るのが難しいため、あくまでも少額の積立投資が堅実だと言えるだろう。

また、レバレッジ設定に関しては、その金利の高さから3倍でも問題なく、スワップポイントで利益を得る事ができる。

欲に駆られてあまりにも高いレバレッジ設定にしてしまうと、強制ロスカットのリスクが高くなるため、あくまでも3〜5倍の設定で留めておくのがおすすめだ。

4.トルコリラで積立投資を行う2つのデメリット

トルコリラで積立投資を行う際の最大のデメリットとしては、短期的に利益を出すのは難しいということ。

スワップ運用で細かく利益を積み上げることは可能だが、今後トルコリラの価格が上昇するかどうかは予測ができない。

そのため、トルコリラで大きな利益を得るためには、長期的な運用が大前提となる。

4-1.為替差益を出すのは難しい

トルコリラ/円の価格は、現在約13円と過去最高に低い水準を記録しており、今後価格が上昇する見込みもない。

実際に直近5年ほどトルコリラは下落傾向にあるため、円との為替差益で利益を出すのは難しいだろう。

ただし、10年後20年後どうなっているかは分からないため、仮に為替差益での利益を期待するのであれば、長期的な運用を前提として積立投資する必要がある。

4-2.短期的に利益を出すのは難しい

トルコリラに関わらず、どの通貨であっても短期的に積立投資で結果を出すのは難しいだろう。

積立投資の目的はあくまでも中・長期的な運用を前提に行うものであり、短期的な利益を目的に取り組むものではないからだ。

特にトルコリラのような価格変動リスクが高い通貨は、短期的な投資を行うとただのギャンブルになりかねない。

5.トルコリラの積立投資におすすめのFX会社3選

  1. LIGHT FX
  2. みんなのFX
  3. トライオートFX

多くのFX会社がある中で、特にトルコリラの積立投資におすすめできる、3社の特徴を分かりやすくまとめた。

それぞれ特徴が異なるため、自身に適したFX会社を活用して、トルコリラの積立投資を始めてみて欲しい。

また、時期によっては各社でお得なキャンペーンなどを実施している場合もあるため、公式サイトも直接各自で確認してから決めるのが得策だ。

それぞれのFX会社を、全部で6つの項目により比較している。

  1. おすすめ度
  2. 使いやすさ
  3. 安全性
  4. スワップポイント
  5. スプレッド
  6. 最小通貨単位

1〜3の項目に関しては、星5の5段階評価となっている。

また、スワップポイント・スプレッドは、数値が固定されていないため時期によって異なる。

そのため、あくまでも目安として参考にして欲しい。

5-1.LIGHT FX

出典:LIGHT FX
おすすめ度★★★★★
使いやすさ★★★★
安全性★★★★
スワップポイント50円
スプレッド1.7銭
最少通貨単位1,000通貨
公式サイトhttps://lightfx.jp/

LIGHT FXは、2018年10月にリリースされたFX取引サービスだ。

運営会社は”トレイダース証券株式会社”となっており、業界最高水準の取引条件と初心者にも扱いやすいシステムから、大変人気が高いサービスの一つである。

ただし、最大発注量は100万単位通貨までとなっていることから、上級者からは物足りないという声が上がっている。

とはいえ、FX初心者には大変使いやすい仕様となっているため、トルコリラで積立投資を行う際には、かなり重宝するだろう。

5-2.みんなのFX

出典:みんなのFX
おすすめ度★★★★
使いやすさ★★★
安全性★★★★
スワップポイント50円
スプレッド1.6銭
最少通貨単位1,000通貨
公式サイトhttps://min-fx.jp/

みんなのFXは、スプレッドの狭さが売りのFX取引サービスだ。

トルコリラに関わらず、どの通貨ペアでも比較的スプレッドが狭く、一回の取引にかかる手数料を安く抑えることができる。

また、FX初心者向けにデモトレード機能なども充実しており、自己資金をいきなり投資に回すのが不安な方には、大変助かるシステムだ。

その他、実際に利用者の口コミや評判でも、スプレッドが狭いことや、スワップポイントで稼ぎやすいなどの声が上がっている。

5-3.トライオートFX

出典:トライオートFX
おすすめ度★★★★
使いやすさ★★★
安全性★★★
スワップポイント49円
スプレッド1.5銭
最少通貨単位1,000通貨
公式サイトhttps://www.invast.jp/triauto/

トライオートFXは、”インヴァスト証券株式会社”が運営しているFX取引サービスだ。

トライオートFXの魅力は何と言っても”自動売買セレクト”といわれる、コンピュータによる自動売買システムがあることだろう。

一度、通貨ペアと取引数量、自動売買を行うロジックを設定すると、後は手を動かさなくてもコンピュータが自動で売買を行ってくれる。

トルコリラの買い付けを自動システムに任せることで、何もしなくても積立投資を行う事ができるという訳だ。

6.トルコリラの積立投資に関するよくあるQ&A

トルコリラの積立投資に関する多くの質問や疑問の中でも、特に多かった内容だけに絞って、分かりやすく回答をまとめてみた。

現時点でトルコリラでの積立投資を検討している方は、参考にして欲しい。

また、取り上げていない内容で気になる事がある方は、直接FX会社に問い合わせてみるのも一つの手段だろう。

結論からいうと再投資することで、トルコリラの積立投資でも複利効果が期待できる。

FX会社(SBI FXトレードなど)によってはスワップポイントで得られた利益を、再投資できる”スワップポイント再投資機能”が導入されているところもある。

手動で再投資を行うのが面倒な人は、再投資を自動で行ってくれるシステムを導入しているFX会社を、活用すると良いだろう。

確かにトルコショックやコロナショックなどにより、価格が大きく下落したことから、損失を出した人は一定数いることだろう。

そもそもトルコリラは価格変動リスクが高いため、投機性が高くFX初心者が最初から扱って良いような、金融投資の手法ではない。

もちろん、少額のスワップ運用には利益が期待できるが、あくまでも余剰資金の範囲内で積立投資を行うのが、良いと言えるだろう。

相場の予想はプロの投資家でも難しいため、上がるとは断言できない。

コロナショックのような突発的な、世界経済に大打撃を与えるような事が、今後も起きないという保証もないからだ。

そのため、価格の上がり下がりを予測するのではなく、あくまでも”ドルコスト平均法”にのっとり、長期的な運用を行うことでリスクを軽減するのが得策だといえるだろう。

FX初心者は特に価格を気にせずに、淡々と少額から積立投資を行うのが、一番勝率が高いといえる。

トルコショックの際にも底値をついたと言われていたが、今回のコロナショックにより、また過去最高の底値を叩き出している。

今後も下がるという確信は持てないが、上がる可能性も不透明なため、これまで通りスワップ運用を継続するのが得策だろう。

下手に予測して損するよりは、淡々と少額で積み立てて、スワップポイントで稼ぐやり方が賢いやり方だ。

まとめ|トルコリラの積立投資はハイリスク・ハイリターン!

トルコリラの積立投資がおすすめできない主な理由を、3つご紹介した。

  1. 対円で長期的に下落が続いている
  2. 強制ロスカットを免れるのが難しい
  3. 米国との関係悪化で今後も見通しが不透明

しかし、高金利であるトルコリラは、スワップ運用目的で積立投資を行うのであれば、大変優れた通貨である。

FX初心者がいきなり手を出して良いような通貨ではないが、ある程度経験と知識に自信がある人は、少額から積立投資を行っても良いだろう。

ただし、トルコリラは為替変動リスクが高く、為替差益で儲けるのは難しいため、余剰資金で無理のない金額を少額で積立ることをおすすめする。

投資はあくまでも自己責任なので、無理のない範囲で行って欲しい。

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